Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2021-22 Final Series

4/25 Game 2

Shingo Hori finished 1st (+67.0pt). The game was decided in South 2: Shingo Hori ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya, which moved Shingo Hori's expected points by +37.9.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Shingo Hori● Mari Takamiya● Sayaka Kayamori● Yoshihiro Matsumoto0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Shingo● Mari● Sayaka● Yoshihiro
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultMari Takamiya
1st-place chance
Shingo Hori
1st-place chance
Sayaka Kayamori
1st-place chance
Yoshihiro Matsumoto
1st-place chance
Mari Takamiya
Expected pt change
Shingo Hori
Expected pt change
Sayaka Kayamori
Expected pt change
Yoshihiro Matsumoto
Expected pt change
East 1Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto24%25%25%27%-2.8+0.5+24.0-21.7
East 2Exhaustive draw20%25%43%13%+0.8-4.2-1.6+5.0
East 3, 1 honbaExhaustive draw21%21%42%16%-3.1+5.5-0.2-2.1
East 4, 2 honbaExhaustive draw19%24%42%15%+3.1+4.4-9.6+2.1
East 4, 3 honbaExhaustive draw22%28%33%17%+8.9-1.8-1.2-5.8
South 1, 4 honbaYoshihiro Matsumoto ron 1,000 from Mari Takamiya28%27%32%14%-14.2-2.0+0.6+15.6
South 2Shingo Hori ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya19%27%33%22%-33.9+37.9-2.6-1.3
South 2, 1 honbaYoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 1,1002%62%23%13%-3.2-0.3-2.4+5.9
South 3Shingo Hori tsumo 8,0001%65%18%17%-4.9+22.5-11.2-6.4
South 4Shingo Hori ron 1,600 from Mari Takamiya0%94%0%6%-3.0+4.6-1.5-0.1

All 2021-22 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)