Game · 2021-22 Final Series
4/26 Game 1
Arisa Date finished 1st (+60.9pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Arisa Date tsumo 12,000, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +38.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% | -2.4 | +5.1 | -2.8 | +0.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 1,300 from Seiichi Kondo | 22% | 29% | 24% | 26% | +0.3 | -5.7 | +7.4 | -1.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 24% | 30% | 24% | +0.6 | -2.6 | +3.6 | -1.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 4,000 | 23% | 23% | 31% | 23% | -3.6 | -6.3 | -8.7 | +18.6 |
| East 4 | Arisa Date tsumo 3,000 | 21% | 18% | 24% | 38% | -7.0 | -0.9 | -2.0 | +9.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 17% | 22% | 46% | -4.7 | +4.7 | +2.9 | -2.9 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 14% | 19% | 24% | 43% | -19.9 | -8.1 | -10.7 | +38.7 |
| South 2 | Sho Shiratori ron 8,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 1% | 6% | 7% | 87% | +25.0 | -29.9 | +1.7 | +3.2 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 0% | 6% | 92% | -4.1 | +2.6 | +3.5 | -2.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 1,500 | 2% | 0% | 8% | 90% | +11.9 | -6.0 | -8.6 | +2.7 |
| South 4 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 99% | +7.3 | +2.7 | -6.2 | -3.8 |