Game · 2021-22 Finals
4/26 Game 1
Date Arisa finished 1st (+60.9pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Date Arisa tsumo 12,000, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +39.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance | Uchikawa Kotaro 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change | Uchikawa Kotaro Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -5.0 | +8.2 | -2.9 | -0.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 1,300 from Kondo Seiichi | 21% | 32% | 22% | 25% | +2.2 | -9.1 | +6.2 | +0.7 |
| East 3 | Draw | 23% | 24% | 27% | 26% | +2.1 | -4.3 | +6.7 | -4.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 4,000 | 24% | 21% | 32% | 23% | -7.7 | -2.5 | -7.7 | +17.9 |
| East 4 | Date Arisa tsumo 3,000 | 18% | 20% | 27% | 35% | -4.7 | -3.2 | -3.9 | +11.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 16% | 17% | 22% | 45% | -3.5 | +4.9 | +2.1 | -3.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 14% | 21% | 23% | 41% | -21.6 | -10.3 | -7.8 | +39.6 |
| South 2 | Shiratori Sho ron 8,000 from Kondo Seiichi | 1% | 5% | 7% | 87% | +25.6 | -27.5 | -0.8 | +2.7 |
| South 3 | Draw | 1% | 0% | 6% | 93% | -3.9 | +2.4 | +3.9 | -2.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho tsumo 1,500 | 2% | 0% | 8% | 90% | +11.1 | -6.0 | -8.0 | +3.0 |
| South 4 | Kondo Seiichi tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 99% | +7.4 | +2.7 | -6.5 | -3.6 |