Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
1/6 Game 1
Makoto Sawazaki finished 1st (+63.5pt). The game was decided in East 3, 2 honba: Makoto Sawazaki ron 12,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi, which moved Makoto Sawazaki's expected points by +36.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 2,000 from Mari Takamiya | 25% | 23% | 26% | 26% | -0.6 | +6.1 | -5.2 | -0.3 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 28% | 23% | 26% | -2.5 | -2.9 | +9.0 | -3.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 3,000 | 23% | 26% | 29% | 23% | -3.2 | -4.6 | +7.6 | +0.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 12,000 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 22% | 22% | 33% | 23% | -1.5 | +36.3 | -3.2 | -31.6 |
| East 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 52% | 26% | 7% | +23.0 | -5.0 | -5.2 | -12.9 |
| South 1 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 8,000 | 31% | 45% | 22% | 3% | -18.2 | +27.1 | -5.8 | -3.1 |
| South 2 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 8% | 80% | 11% | 1% | -7.0 | +3.0 | -0.2 | +4.2 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 88% | 8% | 1% | +33.7 | -7.0 | -20.3 | -6.3 |
| South 4 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 1,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 22% | 77% | 0% | 1% | -9.1 | +12.0 | +2.0 | -5.0 |