Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
1/7 Game 2
Kayamori Sayaka finished 1st (+70.0pt). The game was decided in East 2, 3 honba: Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 16,000, which moved Kayamori Sayaka's expected points by +42.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +3.6 | -4.8 | +2.8 | -1.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 27% | 22% | 27% | 24% | -2.9 | -3.4 | +7.6 | -1.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Ooi Takaharu ron 12,000 from Sonoda Ken | 24% | 21% | 32% | 23% | -1.6 | +37.3 | -2.5 | -33.2 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 16,000 | 20% | 46% | 27% | 8% | -9.6 | -25.5 | +42.9 | -7.8 |
| East 3 | Sonoda Ken ron 2,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 11% | 18% | 67% | 4% | -1.2 | -3.8 | +2.0 | +3.0 |
| East 4 | Sonoda Ken ron 5,800 from Kayamori Sayaka | 9% | 14% | 72% | 5% | +1.1 | +2.3 | -14.1 | +10.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 14% | 20% | 57% | 8% | -2.3 | -1.1 | -0.9 | +4.3 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 8,000 | 12% | 22% | 56% | 10% | -7.9 | +25.7 | -5.6 | -12.2 |
| South 1 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 8% | 41% | 47% | 4% | -13.0 | -13.0 | +32.5 | -6.5 |
| South 2 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 12% | 86% | 1% | -8.1 | -9.5 | 0.0 | +17.6 |
| South 3 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 4% | 92% | 3% | -7.4 | -1.0 | -2.3 | +10.7 |
| South 4 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 5,200 from Sonoda Ken | 0% | 2% | 94% | 4% | -1.8 | +3.4 | +8.0 | -9.6 |