Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
1/14 Game 1
Okada Sayaka finished 1st (+70.5pt). The game was decided in South 2: Okada Sayaka tsumo 24,000, which moved Okada Sayaka's expected points by +69.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 28% | 24% | 23% | 25% | -7.7 | -3.8 | +0.7 | +10.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 2,900 from Matsugase Takaya | 22% | 22% | 24% | 33% | -8.1 | +10.2 | -0.5 | -1.5 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 28% | 23% | 31% | +38.9 | -18.7 | -12.4 | -7.9 |
| East 3 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 47% | 15% | 15% | 24% | -6.8 | -5.7 | -12.0 | +24.5 |
| East 4 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 8,000 | 38% | 11% | 9% | 43% | -2.7 | -6.0 | +20.7 | -12.0 |
| South 1 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 7,800 | 38% | 11% | 18% | 34% | +21.7 | -6.1 | -5.2 | -10.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 2,900 from Takamiya Mari | 61% | 6% | 13% | 20% | +8.6 | +0.4 | -8.5 | -0.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 3,000 | 70% | 5% | 8% | 17% | +12.1 | -1.2 | -4.8 | -6.1 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 5,200 from Matsugase Takaya | 82% | 3% | 5% | 10% | -14.0 | -2.5 | -0.7 | +17.2 |
| South 2 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 24,000 | 68% | 4% | 5% | 23% | -25.4 | +69.9 | -21.1 | -23.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 33% | 53% | 2% | 12% | -16.1 | +29.0 | -4.1 | -8.8 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 12,000 from Takamiya Mari | 7% | 89% | 1% | 4% | +27.2 | -8.9 | -17.5 | -0.8 |
| South 3 | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Takamiya Mari | 27% | 70% | 0% | 3% | -2.8 | +3.8 | -10.1 | +9.0 |
| South 4 | Draw | 19% | 77% | 0% | 3% | +4.1 | -5.0 | -1.3 | +2.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 26% | 69% | 0% | 5% | -7.5 | +15.7 | -1.1 | -7.1 |