Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
1/14 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+70.5pt). The game was decided in South 2: Sayaka Okada tsumo 24,000, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +67.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 27% | 24% | 24% | -4.2 | -5.9 | -0.8 | +10.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 2,900 from Takaya Matsugase | 22% | 22% | 24% | 33% | -7.7 | +8.6 | -1.7 | +0.8 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 27% | 21% | 33% | +36.8 | -17.3 | -10.5 | -9.0 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 45% | 15% | 16% | 24% | -4.2 | -5.0 | -12.6 | +21.9 |
| East 4 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 39% | 11% | 9% | 41% | -4.0 | -5.5 | +20.5 | -11.1 |
| South 1 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 7,800 | 37% | 11% | 19% | 33% | +23.2 | -5.4 | -7.4 | -10.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,900 from Mari Takamiya | 62% | 8% | 11% | 19% | +6.8 | -0.7 | -9.0 | +2.9 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 3,000 | 69% | 4% | 7% | 20% | +12.0 | -0.4 | -4.4 | -7.2 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,200 from Takaya Matsugase | 82% | 4% | 4% | 10% | -12.4 | -2.5 | -0.3 | +15.2 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 24,000 | 70% | 4% | 5% | 21% | -26.9 | +67.9 | -18.3 | -22.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 33% | 52% | 3% | 12% | -15.5 | +28.1 | -4.3 | -8.3 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 12,000 from Mari Takamiya | 8% | 86% | 2% | 4% | +27.4 | -6.8 | -19.4 | -1.3 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 28% | 70% | 0% | 2% | -3.5 | +3.3 | -9.7 | +9.9 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 78% | 0% | 4% | +4.9 | -4.6 | -1.2 | +0.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 69% | 0% | 5% | -8.0 | +15.5 | -1.1 | -6.4 |