Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
1/24 Game 1
Makoto Sawazaki finished 1st (+64.8pt). The game was decided in East 2, 2 honba: Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 7,800, which moved Makoto Sawazaki's expected points by +22.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 26% | 23% | 24% | -7.9 | -2.0 | -0.9 | +10.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 6,000 | 20% | 24% | 24% | 33% | -6.1 | +16.3 | -4.4 | -5.7 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 7,800 | 17% | 35% | 20% | 27% | -8.3 | +22.4 | -6.2 | -7.8 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 2,900 from Sho Shiratori | 10% | 55% | 15% | 20% | -7.8 | +10.2 | -2.0 | -0.5 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 64% | 13% | 17% | -1.1 | +3.9 | -0.9 | -1.8 |
| East 2, 5 honba | Jun Murakami tsumo 8,000 | 6% | 67% | 11% | 15% | -6.7 | -11.4 | +24.1 | -6.0 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 57% | 23% | 14% | -0.9 | -1.9 | +4.3 | -1.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 6% | 53% | 27% | 14% | -9.1 | -3.0 | -13.3 | +25.4 |
| East 4 | Sho Shiratori ron 8,000 from Arisa Date | 4% | 52% | 17% | 28% | +16.4 | +5.1 | +2.9 | -24.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 61% | 19% | 12% | +1.7 | +3.9 | -7.2 | +1.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 65% | 15% | 13% | +7.8 | -2.2 | -2.2 | -3.4 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 63% | 15% | 11% | +5.2 | +1.2 | -1.8 | -4.6 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 1,000 from Jun Murakami | 13% | 64% | 14% | 10% | -5.5 | +12.7 | -8.0 | +0.8 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 81% | 8% | 7% | +4.6 | -0.7 | -5.5 | +1.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 3,900 from Jun Murakami | 3% | 84% | 7% | 6% | -4.6 | +3.2 | -19.4 | +20.8 |
| South 4 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 2,000 from Jun Murakami | 1% | 90% | 0% | 8% | -0.5 | +7.3 | -6.4 | -0.5 |