Game · 2021-22 Regular Season

1/31 Game 2

Arisa Date finished 1st (+59.6pt). The game was decided in East 3: Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Shingo Hori, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +30.5.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance	Shingo Hori 1st-place chance	Arisa Date 1st-place chance	Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance	Go Kobayashi Expected pt change	Shingo Hori Expected pt change	Arisa Date Expected pt change	Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change
East 1	Go Kobayashi tsumo 1,500	26%	24%	25%	25%	+7.3	+0.1	-7.0	-0.4
East 1, 1 honba	Exhaustive draw	28%	25%	22%	25%	+1.5	+2.1	-1.4	-2.1
East 1, 2 honba	Shingo Hori tsumo 4,000	30%	26%	21%	23%	-8.6	+16.9	-2.4	-5.9
East 2	Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Shingo Hori	24%	39%	19%	19%	+3.4	-27.4	+22.1	+1.9
East 3	Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Shingo Hori	26%	17%	35%	22%	-3.6	-25.4	+30.5	-1.6
East 3, 1 honba	Exhaustive draw	18%	6%	61%	15%	-1.4	-1.9	-3.0	+6.3
East 4, 2 honba	Takaharu Ooi ron 2,000 from Arisa Date	17%	5%	59%	19%	+0.9	-2.2	-9.0	+10.2
East 4, 3 honba	Takaharu Ooi ron 9,600 from Go Kobayashi	20%	5%	49%	26%	-26.3	+1.7	-1.6	+26.1
East 4, 4 honba	Arisa Date tsumo 4,000	7%	3%	43%	48%	-3.7	-3.1	+15.6	-8.8
South 1	Takaharu Ooi ron 8,000 from Shingo Hori	4%	3%	60%	33%	-1.3	-13.4	-5.3	+20.0
South 2	Exhaustive draw	0%	1%	44%	54%	-2.2	+5.1	-0.9	-2.0
South 2, 1 honba	Exhaustive draw	0%	1%	45%	54%	+2.5	+2.1	-3.3	-1.2
South 2, 2 honba	Arisa Date tsumo 1,500	1%	2%	42%	54%	+0.7	-6.0	+8.4	-3.0
South 3	Exhaustive draw	0%	0%	54%	45%	-0.7	+3.0	+2.9	-5.2
South 4, 1 honba	Shingo Hori tsumo 5,200	0%	0%	66%	34%	-18.0	+22.8	+12.8	-17.6

All 2021-22 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)