Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
2/4 Game 2
Arisa Date finished 1st (+65.7pt). The game was decided in East 3: Arisa Date tsumo 12,000, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +32.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 26% | 25% | 26% | -14.1 | +29.0 | -7.9 | -6.9 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 49% | 18% | 20% | +1.7 | +3.7 | -1.8 | -3.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 8,000 | 14% | 52% | 17% | 17% | -6.1 | -10.5 | -8.3 | +24.9 |
| East 3 | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 42% | 13% | 33% | -5.3 | +32.0 | -16.7 | -9.9 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 74% | 3% | 17% | -1.8 | -1.9 | -2.0 | +5.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 71% | 3% | 21% | -9.8 | -2.3 | +29.8 | -17.8 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 73% | 11% | 12% | -8.2 | -0.5 | -0.9 | +9.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 3,000 | 1% | 75% | 10% | 14% | -0.7 | +8.5 | -3.4 | -4.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 2,900 from Taro Suzuki | 0% | 84% | 6% | 9% | +0.3 | +4.3 | +2.8 | -7.3 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 87% | 7% | 6% | -5.5 | -7.1 | +20.8 | -8.3 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 82% | 13% | 5% | -0.8 | +3.0 | -5.6 | +3.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 91% | 4% | 6% | -1.7 | +6.3 | +1.9 | -6.5 |