Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
2/4 Game 2
Date Arisa finished 1st (+65.7pt). The game was decided in East 3: Date Arisa tsumo 12,000, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +34.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Rumi 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Nikaido Rumi Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 27% | 24% | 24% | 24% | -19.1 | +31.2 | -5.5 | -6.6 |
| East 2 | Draw | 14% | 48% | 19% | 19% | +2.9 | +5.0 | -4.2 | -3.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Suzuki Taro tsumo 8,000 | 14% | 55% | 16% | 16% | -8.5 | -13.1 | -4.3 | +26.0 |
| East 3 | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 40% | 14% | 34% | -4.9 | +34.9 | -19.5 | -10.5 |
| East 4 | Draw | 4% | 76% | 3% | 16% | -1.6 | -2.6 | -1.6 | +5.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 72% | 3% | 20% | -9.4 | -2.8 | +30.7 | -18.5 |
| South 1 | Draw | 4% | 74% | 12% | 10% | -7.3 | +0.8 | -2.8 | +9.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 3,000 | 1% | 77% | 9% | 13% | -0.9 | +6.0 | -2.2 | -2.9 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Date Arisa ron 2,900 from Suzuki Taro | 1% | 83% | 8% | 9% | +0.3 | +5.4 | +0.8 | -6.4 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 88% | 6% | 6% | -5.7 | -8.0 | +22.8 | -9.1 |
| South 3 | Draw | 0% | 81% | 14% | 5% | -0.2 | +3.8 | -5.9 | +2.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 92% | 3% | 5% | -2.3 | +5.9 | +1.9 | -5.6 |