Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
2/7 Game 1
Takaya Matsugase finished 1st (+61.6pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada, which moved Takaya Matsugase's expected points by +25.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Koshin Asakura 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Koshin Asakura Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Okada ron 2,900 from Koshin Asakura | 26% | 23% | 26% | 26% | +9.6 | -4.8 | -3.4 | -1.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 33% | 20% | 23% | 25% | -22.7 | -2.3 | -0.3 | +25.2 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 18% | 21% | 44% | +4.4 | -4.5 | -0.9 | +1.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 8,000 | 18% | 15% | 20% | 47% | -5.3 | -3.9 | -15.6 | +24.7 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 2,000 | 11% | 9% | 8% | 72% | +8.0 | -2.3 | -5.6 | 0.0 |
| South 1 | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Koshin Asakura | 13% | 7% | 6% | 74% | -3.6 | -20.6 | +4.9 | +19.3 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 1% | 3% | 94% | +18.1 | -10.7 | -5.5 | -1.9 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 0% | 2% | 94% | -2.4 | -1.8 | +5.2 | -1.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 5,200 from Koshin Asakura | 4% | 0% | 3% | 93% | +10.2 | -7.9 | -3.5 | +1.2 |
| South 4 | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 5% | 0% | 0% | 95% | -1.4 | +0.1 | +8.8 | -7.5 |