Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
2/7 Game 2
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+65.3pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +50.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 8,000 | 27% | 23% | 24% | 25% | -16.5 | -3.3 | -3.0 | +22.9 |
| East 2 | Aki Nikaido ron 2,900 from Shingo Hori | 16% | 21% | 22% | 42% | +2.3 | +7.0 | -10.1 | +0.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 25% | 17% | 41% | -11.1 | +32.6 | -9.0 | -12.5 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 8,000 | 10% | 51% | 10% | 29% | -5.8 | -14.5 | +24.4 | -4.1 |
| East 3 | Shingo Hori ron 3,900 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 9% | 38% | 24% | 29% | +2.0 | +1.0 | +9.3 | -12.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 1,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 10% | 39% | 31% | 21% | -5.7 | +4.4 | +0.4 | +1.0 |
| East 4 | Shingo Hori ron 1,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 7% | 43% | 30% | 20% | -3.4 | +3.8 | +2.8 | -3.2 |
| South 1 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 6,000 | 6% | 48% | 30% | 15% | +19.1 | -5.7 | -8.1 | -5.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 42% | 27% | 16% | -15.0 | -11.2 | +32.9 | -6.7 |
| South 2 | Aki Nikaido ron 2,900 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 4% | 26% | 61% | 9% | -0.6 | +12.7 | -5.8 | -6.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 2,000 | 4% | 38% | 51% | 7% | -4.8 | -6.9 | +13.4 | -1.8 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 23% | 70% | 5% | -5.2 | -3.3 | +1.2 | +7.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 16% | 77% | 7% | -9.8 | +50.9 | -32.7 | -8.4 |