Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
2/8 Game 2
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+59.5pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Taro Suzuki, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +38.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 1,500 | 27% | 26% | 24% | 24% | +4.7 | -3.7 | +0.1 | -1.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 29% | 22% | 24% | 24% | +0.8 | -0.5 | -3.7 | +3.4 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 4,000 | 30% | 22% | 21% | 27% | -7.9 | +15.4 | -3.6 | -3.9 |
| East 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 6,000 | 23% | 33% | 20% | 24% | -3.6 | +17.6 | -6.6 | -7.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 48% | 13% | 19% | -1.9 | +2.9 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Taro Suzuki | 18% | 50% | 15% | 17% | -1.8 | -3.7 | -27.8 | +33.3 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,600 from Taro Suzuki | 14% | 43% | 5% | 38% | +0.4 | +1.1 | -8.6 | +7.1 |
| East 4 | Taro Suzuki ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 12% | 42% | 2% | 43% | -19.5 | +3.2 | +15.4 | +0.8 |
| South 1 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 18,000 | 6% | 45% | 4% | 45% | +48.4 | -16.6 | -13.0 | -18.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 2,000 | 36% | 32% | 3% | 29% | -5.6 | +7.7 | -2.1 | 0.0 |
| South 2 | Mari Takamiya ron 1,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 30% | 40% | 2% | 29% | +6.0 | -1.4 | +0.3 | -4.9 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 37% | 37% | 2% | 25% | -1.9 | -0.6 | +3.0 | -0.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 35% | 37% | 3% | 26% | -3.5 | -4.7 | +2.5 | +5.7 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Taro Suzuki | 32% | 32% | 3% | 32% | -13.1 | -10.1 | -15.1 | +38.2 |
| South 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,600 from Taro Suzuki | 10% | 11% | 0% | 79% | -12.7 | +8.1 | -2.9 | +7.5 |