Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
2/10 Game 1
Mari Takamiya finished 1st (+84.5pt). The game was decided in East 1: Mari Takamiya ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori, which moved Mari Takamiya's expected points by +34.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mari Takamiya ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 26% | 23% | 25% | 25% | +34.5 | -29.8 | -2.2 | -2.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 3,000 | 52% | 9% | 20% | 20% | +5.3 | -2.6 | -2.8 | 0.0 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 2,100 | 58% | 7% | 17% | 18% | +7.2 | -2.9 | -2.0 | -2.4 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 5,800 from Takaya Matsugase | 64% | 6% | 15% | 16% | +13.9 | +1.6 | -0.4 | -15.1 |
| East 1, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 77% | 4% | 11% | 8% | +2.3 | -1.7 | -3.7 | +3.1 |
| East 1, 5 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 1,300 from Sayaka Kayamori | 79% | 5% | 9% | 7% | -1.1 | -8.0 | +0.5 | +8.6 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 80% | 3% | 8% | 9% | +3.2 | -3.1 | -1.0 | +0.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,000 from Mari Takamiya | 83% | 1% | 7% | 9% | -2.6 | -1.0 | -1.5 | +5.1 |
| East 4 | Mari Takamiya ron 12,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 84% | 2% | 5% | 10% | +18.1 | +2.9 | +4.3 | -25.3 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 2,000 | 97% | 1% | 2% | 1% | -2.0 | +3.2 | +0.2 | -1.4 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 3,000 | 97% | 1% | 1% | 1% | -0.1 | +4.5 | -1.7 | -2.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 3,000 | 98% | 1% | 2% | 0% | -2.3 | +11.8 | -4.3 | -5.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 97% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 | +27.7 | -29.1 | +1.4 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 1,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 96% | 3% | 1% | 1% | +5.0 | -0.3 | -3.9 | -0.8 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 99% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -1.3 | -0.9 | +4.9 | -2.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 1,500 | 99% | 0% | 1% | 1% | +3.6 | +2.0 | -3.6 | -2.0 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -1.1 | +1.2 | +14.4 | -14.4 |