Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
2/10 Game 1
Takamiya Mari finished 1st (+84.5pt). The game was decided in East 1: Takamiya Mari ron 12,000 from Kayamori Sayaka, which moved Takamiya Mari's expected points by +36.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takamiya Mari ron 12,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 24% | 27% | 23% | 26% | +36.1 | -31.3 | -2.7 | -2.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 3,000 | 52% | 9% | 19% | 20% | +7.0 | -2.5 | -2.0 | -2.6 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 2,100 | 58% | 7% | 16% | 19% | +9.3 | -4.1 | -2.9 | -2.3 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 5,800 from Matsugase Takaya | 66% | 5% | 13% | 15% | +12.0 | +1.8 | -0.1 | -13.7 |
| East 1, 4 honba | Draw | 78% | 5% | 10% | 8% | +2.1 | -3.2 | -2.0 | +3.0 |
| East 1, 5 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 1,300 from Kayamori Sayaka | 79% | 4% | 9% | 8% | -0.9 | -6.9 | -1.5 | +9.3 |
| East 2 | Draw | 80% | 3% | 8% | 10% | +2.0 | -3.1 | +1.8 | -0.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 2,000 from Takamiya Mari | 82% | 2% | 8% | 9% | -1.4 | -1.0 | -2.8 | +5.2 |
| East 4 | Takamiya Mari ron 12,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 84% | 1% | 5% | 10% | +18.0 | +2.7 | +4.9 | -25.6 |
| South 1 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 2,000 | 97% | 0% | 2% | 1% | -2.2 | +3.6 | -0.9 | -0.4 |
| South 2 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 3,000 | 97% | 1% | 2% | 1% | -1.0 | +5.6 | -2.0 | -2.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 3,000 | 96% | 1% | 1% | 2% | -0.6 | +9.5 | -2.9 | -6.0 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 97% | 1% | 1% | 1% | -0.8 | +30.0 | -28.6 | -0.6 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 1,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 96% | 3% | 1% | 1% | +5.4 | -0.9 | -5.4 | +0.9 |
| South 3 | Draw | 99% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -0.9 | -1.4 | +4.8 | -2.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 1,500 | 99% | 0% | 0% | 1% | +2.9 | +2.0 | -3.6 | -1.3 |
| South 4 | Draw | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -1.0 | +1.3 | +14.7 | -15.0 |