Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
2/14 Game 1
Takaya Matsugase finished 1st (+82.3pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Takaya Matsugase tsumo 16,000, which moved Takaya Matsugase's expected points by +44.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 23% | 27% | -3.6 | -3.7 | +8.5 | -1.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 16,000 | 23% | 22% | 30% | 25% | -10.9 | -22.5 | +44.4 | -11.0 |
| East 3 | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,900 from Jun Murakami | 11% | 6% | 71% | 12% | +0.6 | -8.7 | +7.3 | +0.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 18,000 | 8% | 4% | 78% | 11% | -10.6 | -5.7 | +26.5 | -10.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 1% | 96% | 2% | -1.7 | -2.0 | +3.7 | 0.0 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Yuumi Uotani tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 0% | 97% | 2% | +26.6 | -7.0 | -10.0 | -9.5 |
| East 4 | Yuumi Uotani tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 1% | 92% | 2% | +15.3 | -2.3 | -1.1 | -11.9 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 0% | 91% | 0% | +2.6 | -0.9 | -3.3 | +1.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Yuumi Uotani ron 7,700 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 11% | 0% | 88% | 1% | +16.8 | +2.4 | -5.2 | -14.0 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 1,000 from Jun Murakami | 24% | 0% | 76% | 0% | -5.5 | -1.9 | +7.5 | -0.1 |
| South 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Yuumi Uotani | 13% | 0% | 86% | 0% | -12.8 | -7.0 | +4.4 | +15.4 |
| South 3 | Yuumi Uotani ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 2% | 0% | 98% | 0% | +8.6 | +8.6 | -0.8 | -16.4 |
| South 4 | Yuumi Uotani ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 2% | 0% | 98% | 0% | +11.3 | +7.5 | +1.5 | -20.3 |