Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
2/17 Game 2
Shingo Hori finished 1st (+61.2pt). The game was decided in South 4: Shingo Hori tsumo 12,000, which moved Shingo Hori's expected points by +44.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 6,000 | 24% | 26% | 26% | 24% | +18.7 | -8.2 | -7.7 | -2.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 37% | 20% | 21% | 22% | -3.8 | +0.6 | +5.8 | -2.6 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 2,000 from Sho Shiratori | 34% | 20% | 25% | 21% | +3.4 | -9.0 | +6.3 | -0.8 |
| East 3 | Shingo Hori ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 37% | 14% | 28% | 20% | -23.0 | -1.4 | +1.1 | +23.4 |
| East 4 | Shingo Hori ron 5,800 from Sho Shiratori | 19% | 14% | 29% | 38% | -1.7 | -15.4 | -0.1 | +17.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 5,200 from Shingo Hori | 16% | 7% | 25% | 52% | +0.8 | -2.6 | +17.6 | -15.8 |
| South 1 | Arisa Date tsumo 2,700 | 17% | 6% | 42% | 35% | -8.2 | -1.8 | +10.4 | -0.4 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date ron 1,000 from Shingo Hori | 9% | 5% | 54% | 32% | -0.1 | -7.2 | +8.9 | -1.6 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 1,500 | 6% | 1% | 68% | 26% | +1.3 | -1.9 | +2.8 | -2.2 |
| South 4 | Shingo Hori tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 0% | 79% | 18% | -6.8 | -4.9 | -33.1 | +44.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 1% | 0% | 8% | 91% | -29.8 | +28.2 | -1.0 | +2.5 |