Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
2/21 Game 1
Rio Tojyo finished 1st (+57.4pt). The game was decided in South 4: Rio Tojyo tsumo 8,000, which moved Rio Tojyo's expected points by +48.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -3.6 | +0.7 | +5.1 | -2.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 25% | 28% | 23% | +7.2 | -6.1 | -0.4 | -0.8 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 28% | 20% | 28% | 24% | +28.8 | +0.6 | -29.2 | -0.3 |
| East 4 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 1,500 | 53% | 17% | 9% | 21% | -2.2 | -3.8 | -1.4 | +7.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 12,000 | 50% | 15% | 9% | 26% | -10.3 | +37.5 | -4.8 | -22.4 |
| South 1 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000 | 37% | 45% | 7% | 10% | -24.7 | -7.6 | -11.0 | +43.3 |
| South 2 | Akina Mizuhara ron 2,000 from Rio Tojyo | 16% | 36% | 4% | 44% | -0.5 | -7.9 | -0.9 | +9.3 |
| South 3 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 1,500 | 14% | 25% | 4% | 56% | -3.4 | -2.9 | -7.4 | +13.7 |
| South 4 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 8,000 | 8% | 12% | 0% | 80% | -9.3 | +48.3 | -2.3 | -36.7 |