Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
2/28 Game 1
Kayamori Sayaka finished 1st (+67.9pt). The game was decided in South 1: Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000, which moved Kayamori Sayaka's expected points by +33.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Asakura Koshin 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Asakura Koshin Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 7,800 | 25% | 25% | 26% | 24% | +20.9 | -7.8 | -7.6 | -5.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Asakura Koshin ron 2,000 from Sonoda Ken | 41% | 19% | 21% | 18% | -1.0 | -0.3 | -6.0 | +7.4 |
| East 2 | Sonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 39% | 19% | 18% | 24% | -0.1 | -20.6 | +20.6 | 0.0 |
| East 3 | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 8,000 | 39% | 9% | 29% | 23% | -2.5 | +20.3 | -12.8 | -5.0 |
| East 4 | Sonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 39% | 19% | 21% | 22% | -0.8 | -22.3 | +28.9 | -5.8 |
| South 1 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 36% | 8% | 42% | 14% | +33.5 | -8.5 | -15.5 | -9.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 3,000 | 71% | 3% | 19% | 7% | +8.1 | -3.5 | -2.3 | -2.3 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Asakura Koshin tsumo 8,000 | 79% | 2% | 15% | 5% | -7.8 | -5.6 | -6.7 | +20.1 |
| South 2 | Asakura Koshin ron 1,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 74% | 2% | 13% | 11% | +3.8 | -6.0 | -1.8 | +4.0 |
| South 3 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 1,100 | 81% | 0% | 9% | 10% | +7.8 | -1.2 | -6.0 | -0.5 |
| South 4 | Asakura Koshin tsumo 3,900 | 93% | 0% | 0% | 7% | -3.3 | -1.3 | -7.1 | +11.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 3,900 from Takizawa Kazunori | 88% | 0% | 0% | 12% | +9.1 | -4.0 | -1.9 | -3.2 |