Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
2/28 Game 2
Arisa Date finished 1st (+56.6pt). The game was decided in East 3: Arisa Date tsumo 8,000, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +21.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Jun Murakami ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi | 25% | 23% | 26% | 26% | -23.3 | +27.0 | +0.5 | -4.2 |
| East 2 | Jun Murakami tsumo 6,000 | 12% | 43% | 24% | 21% | -3.5 | +14.7 | -5.3 | -5.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 1,100 | 9% | 57% | 17% | 17% | +2.7 | -1.9 | -1.6 | +0.8 |
| East 3 | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 9% | 57% | 17% | 17% | -4.6 | -2.5 | -14.5 | +21.5 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 54% | 9% | 30% | -2.7 | -5.2 | -0.7 | +8.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 7,800 | 7% | 46% | 8% | 39% | -6.6 | -10.3 | -3.5 | +20.4 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 2,900 from Jun Murakami | 4% | 30% | 7% | 59% | -0.9 | -8.8 | -1.1 | +10.8 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 2,000 | 3% | 20% | 5% | 72% | -5.7 | -1.5 | +9.1 | -1.9 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 19% | 6% | 73% | +3.7 | -7.5 | +1.5 | +2.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 14% | 7% | 76% | +31.2 | -10.7 | -13.8 | -6.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 12% | 6% | 70% | +7.2 | -2.3 | -0.9 | -4.1 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 12% | 6% | 65% | -4.5 | -2.3 | +3.6 | +3.2 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Go Kobayashi tsumo 2,000 | 12% | 11% | 7% | 71% | +14.5 | -10.1 | -5.1 | +0.7 |
| South 3 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 5,200 | 16% | 3% | 6% | 75% | +21.8 | -1.7 | -13.7 | -6.4 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,600 from Go Kobayashi | 41% | 0% | 0% | 59% | -18.4 | +2.8 | +0.2 | +15.5 |