Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
3/1 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+66.1pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Aiko Hinata, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +48.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -16.3 | +31.6 | -9.0 | -6.3 |
| East 2 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 2,000 | 13% | 50% | 17% | 20% | -1.3 | -6.5 | +9.3 | -1.5 |
| East 3 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 13% | 45% | 23% | 19% | -1.5 | -1.2 | -5.0 | +7.7 |
| East 4 | Aiko Hinata ron 2,600 from Takaya Matsugase | 12% | 44% | 19% | 25% | +6.7 | +1.5 | -7.0 | -1.2 |
| South 1 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 46% | 16% | 22% | -19.4 | -11.2 | -10.1 | +40.8 |
| South 2 | Aiko Hinata ron 8,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 3% | 27% | 8% | 62% | +26.7 | -7.1 | -22.5 | +2.9 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 18% | 3% | 68% | -2.1 | +3.6 | +4.1 | -5.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 13% | 24% | 4% | 59% | -3.3 | +10.8 | -11.1 | +3.7 |
| South 4 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 2,900 from Aiko Hinata | 7% | 29% | 0% | 63% | -7.5 | -3.8 | +0.4 | +10.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Aiko Hinata | 2% | 16% | 0% | 82% | -13.3 | +48.5 | -1.2 | -34.0 |