Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2021-22 Regular Season

3/1 Game 1

Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+66.1pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Hinata Aiko, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +48.4.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 3End● Setokuma Naoki● Hinata Aiko● Matsugase Takaya● Sawazaki Makoto0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Setokuma● Hinata● Matsugase● Sawazaki
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultHinata Aiko
1st-place chance
Setokuma Naoki
1st-place chance
Matsugase Takaya
1st-place chance
Sawazaki Makoto
1st-place chance
Hinata Aiko
Expected pt change
Setokuma Naoki
Expected pt change
Matsugase Takaya
Expected pt change
Sawazaki Makoto
Expected pt change
East 1Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,00025%25%23%27%-17.2+31.0-3.3-10.4
East 2Matsugase Takaya tsumo 2,00013%49%21%17%+2.0-6.8+4.5+0.3
East 3Sawazaki Makoto ron 2,000 from Setokuma Naoki15%43%23%19%-3.5-1.4-3.6+8.5
East 4Hinata Aiko ron 2,600 from Matsugase Takaya12%44%19%25%+5.6+3.2-8.1-0.8
South 1Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 12,00015%48%15%22%-18.9-10.2-10.3+39.3
South 2Hinata Aiko ron 8,000 from Matsugase Takaya4%29%8%60%+28.7-8.5-21.8+1.7
South 3Draw14%19%3%64%-5.0+4.8+2.8-2.6
South 3, 1 honbaSetokuma Naoki ron 2,000 from Matsugase Takaya11%25%4%60%-2.1+9.2-9.8+2.6
South 4Sawazaki Makoto ron 2,900 from Hinata Aiko7%28%0%65%-7.3-3.5+0.7+10.1
South 4, 1 honbaSetokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Hinata Aiko2%18%0%80%-13.7+48.4-1.6-33.1

All 2021-22 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)