Game · 2021-22 Regular Season

3/4 Game 2

Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+67.3pt). The game was decided in South 3: Hisato Sasaki ron 12,000 from Makoto Sawazaki, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +45.5.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance	Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance	Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance	Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance	Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change	Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change	Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change	Ken Sonoda Expected pt change
East 1	Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 8,000	28%	25%	24%	24%	-15.3	+20.9	-3.0	-2.6
East 2	Win	17%	40%	21%	22%	-6.2	+0.3	-1.9	+7.8
East 3	Exhaustive draw	14%	40%	20%	26%	-0.8	-0.7	-4.0	+5.5
East 4, 1 honba	Makoto Sawazaki ron 1,000 from Hisato Sasaki	13%	40%	17%	31%	-3.2	+7.8	-4.3	-0.2
South 1	Takaya Matsugase tsumo 6,000	11%	48%	14%	27%	+16.5	-6.2	-4.6	-5.8
South 1, 1 honba	Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 2,700	20%	42%	13%	25%	-6.5	+13.6	-4.2	-3.0
South 2	Ken Sonoda ron 5,200 from Takaya Matsugase	12%	58%	10%	20%	-16.9	+1.8	-3.0	+18.0
South 3	Hisato Sasaki ron 12,000 from Makoto Sawazaki	3%	60%	7%	30%	-2.4	-47.0	+45.5	+3.9
South 3, 1 honba	Exhaustive draw	6%	14%	38%	43%	-0.5	+3.3	+2.7	-5.5
South 3, 2 honba	Exhaustive draw	6%	17%	41%	36%	+2.5	-5.4	+7.6	-4.7
South 3, 3 honba	Hisato Sasaki tsumo 18,000	6%	13%	50%	31%	-11.1	-13.2	+42.9	-18.7
South 3, 4 honba	Exhaustive draw	0%	0%	97%	3%	-1.4	-1.0	+4.2	-1.8
South 3, 5 honba	Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki	0%	0%	98%	2%	+23.3	-10.1	-11.5	-1.7
South 4	Makoto Sawazaki ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda	0%	0%	96%	3%	-4.2	+40.4	+2.1	-38.3

All 2021-22 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)