Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
3/7 Game 1
Sawazaki Makoto finished 1st (+69.5pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 12,000, which moved Sawazaki Makoto's expected points by +31.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Asakura Koshin 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Asakura Koshin Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Asakura Koshin tsumo 18,000 | 26% | 23% | 25% | 26% | +44.3 | -12.9 | -15.8 | -15.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sawazaki Makoto ron 8,000 from Hinata Aiko | 62% | 13% | 13% | 13% | -0.4 | -18.4 | +19.0 | -0.3 |
| East 2 | Draw | 62% | 7% | 19% | 12% | -4.7 | +4.0 | -0.5 | +1.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 7,800 | 57% | 9% | 21% | 13% | -5.1 | +19.9 | -6.3 | -8.5 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 5,200 | 54% | 15% | 19% | 11% | -2.3 | -9.8 | +15.2 | -3.1 |
| East 3 | Draw | 51% | 10% | 29% | 10% | +5.4 | -2.0 | +0.4 | -3.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 12,000 | 56% | 10% | 27% | 8% | -16.3 | -8.0 | +31.5 | -7.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 2,000 | 32% | 5% | 57% | 5% | +0.3 | +5.0 | -2.6 | -2.7 |
| East 4 | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 1,100 | 34% | 7% | 55% | 5% | -0.2 | -1.1 | +7.0 | -5.7 |
| South 1 | Draw | 29% | 5% | 65% | 2% | +5.6 | -0.6 | -5.0 | -0.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Asakura Koshin tsumo 1,500 | 36% | 5% | 57% | 2% | +4.2 | -2.3 | -0.8 | -1.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Draw | 40% | 4% | 54% | 2% | -1.2 | +5.6 | -1.5 | -3.0 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 8,000 | 40% | 5% | 53% | 2% | -11.8 | -10.5 | +25.2 | -2.8 |
| South 3 | Hinata Aiko ron 2,000 from Sawazaki Makoto | 11% | 0% | 88% | 1% | -1.4 | +3.5 | -0.7 | -1.4 |
| South 4 | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 1,100 | 6% | 0% | 93% | 1% | -2.3 | +2.9 | +4.5 | -5.2 |