Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
3/7 Game 1
Makoto Sawazaki finished 1st (+69.5pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 12,000, which moved Makoto Sawazaki's expected points by +30.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Koshin Asakura 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Koshin Asakura Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Koshin Asakura tsumo 18,000 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +43.0 | -13.2 | -16.6 | -13.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 8,000 from Aiko Hinata | 60% | 15% | 11% | 13% | +0.7 | -19.1 | +19.8 | -1.4 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 62% | 6% | 20% | 12% | -5.2 | +4.2 | +1.3 | -0.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 7,800 | 56% | 9% | 22% | 13% | -3.3 | +20.6 | -9.3 | -8.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 5,200 | 54% | 17% | 18% | 11% | -2.1 | -11.4 | +17.8 | -4.3 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 52% | 9% | 30% | 9% | +3.1 | -2.7 | +0.6 | -1.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 12,000 | 54% | 9% | 29% | 9% | -14.3 | -8.6 | +30.1 | -7.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 2,000 | 33% | 5% | 57% | 5% | -0.2 | +6.2 | -2.3 | -3.7 |
| East 4 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 1,100 | 31% | 7% | 58% | 4% | -0.9 | 0.0 | +5.4 | -4.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 28% | 6% | 64% | 3% | +7.6 | -2.6 | -4.0 | -1.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Koshin Asakura tsumo 1,500 | 37% | 5% | 57% | 2% | +4.8 | -1.2 | -2.4 | -1.2 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 42% | 4% | 52% | 2% | -1.9 | +5.2 | -0.2 | -3.1 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 8,000 | 41% | 5% | 53% | 1% | -13.7 | -10.4 | +26.2 | -2.0 |
| South 3 | Aiko Hinata ron 2,000 from Makoto Sawazaki | 10% | 0% | 90% | 1% | -0.3 | +4.0 | -1.6 | -2.1 |
| South 4 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 1,100 | 7% | 0% | 93% | 1% | -2.6 | +2.8 | +4.7 | -5.0 |