Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2021-22 Regular Season

10/4 Game 1

Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+53.1pt). The game was decided in South 3: Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +39.0.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Yoshihiro Matsumoto● Takaya Matsugase● Sayaka Okada● Ken Sonoda0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Yoshihiro● Takaya● Sayaka● Ken
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultYoshihiro Matsumoto
1st-place chance
Takaya Matsugase
1st-place chance
Sayaka Okada
1st-place chance
Ken Sonoda
1st-place chance
Yoshihiro Matsumoto
Expected pt change
Takaya Matsugase
Expected pt change
Sayaka Okada
Expected pt change
Ken Sonoda
Expected pt change
East 1Exhaustive draw25%26%24%26%-3.3+1.1+5.1-3.0
East 2, 1 honbaKen Sonoda tsumo 2,00022%26%28%24%-5.5-5.7-4.4+15.5
East 3Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 1,10017%21%25%37%+6.2+0.6-5.8-0.9
East 4Sayaka Okada tsumo 2,00023%23%19%35%-4.3-2.1+9.5-3.1
South 1Exhaustive draw20%21%27%32%-7.4+7.4+0.8-0.8
South 2, 1 honbaExhaustive draw15%26%27%32%+5.4-0.1-10.6+5.4
South 2, 2 honbaYoshihiro Matsumoto ron 1,000 from Takaya Matsugase17%26%20%37%+15.5-8.7-7.3+0.5
South 3Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,00029%18%16%37%+39.0-10.3-18.9-9.8
South 4Takaya Matsugase tsumo 4,00079%5%2%14%+7.8+23.0-9.2-21.6

All 2021-22 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)