Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
10/4 Game 1
Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+53.1pt). The game was decided in South 3: Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +39.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 26% | 24% | 26% | -3.3 | +1.1 | +5.1 | -3.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 2,000 | 22% | 26% | 28% | 24% | -5.5 | -5.7 | -4.4 | +15.5 |
| East 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 1,100 | 17% | 21% | 25% | 37% | +6.2 | +0.6 | -5.8 | -0.9 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 2,000 | 23% | 23% | 19% | 35% | -4.3 | -2.1 | +9.5 | -3.1 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 21% | 27% | 32% | -7.4 | +7.4 | +0.8 | -0.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 26% | 27% | 32% | +5.4 | -0.1 | -10.6 | +5.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 1,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 17% | 26% | 20% | 37% | +15.5 | -8.7 | -7.3 | +0.5 |
| South 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 29% | 18% | 16% | 37% | +39.0 | -10.3 | -18.9 | -9.8 |
| South 4 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 4,000 | 79% | 5% | 2% | 14% | +7.8 | +23.0 | -9.2 | -21.6 |