Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
10/5 Game 1
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+58.6pt). The game was decided in South 4: Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +59.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Go Kobayashi ron 18,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +42.8 | -38.4 | -0.4 | -3.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 4,000 | 58% | 6% | 18% | 18% | -6.0 | -1.9 | -4.2 | +12.1 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara ron 1,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 54% | 6% | 16% | 24% | +2.2 | -3.6 | +2.8 | -1.3 |
| East 3 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 8,000 | 56% | 3% | 17% | 24% | +19.1 | -4.0 | -11.5 | -3.6 |
| East 4 | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi | 77% | 1% | 6% | 15% | -14.8 | -1.6 | +21.3 | -4.9 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 62% | 2% | 22% | 14% | +4.9 | +1.5 | -4.1 | -2.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 4,000 | 69% | 2% | 15% | 13% | -6.9 | -2.9 | +13.7 | -3.9 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 6,000 | 61% | 2% | 26% | 11% | -5.7 | +13.6 | -1.0 | -7.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 12,000 | 57% | 4% | 29% | 10% | -8.7 | -15.6 | -13.2 | +37.5 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 45% | 0% | 19% | 36% | -1.4 | -1.4 | +4.6 | -1.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 2,900 from Kazunori Takizawa | 43% | 0% | 21% | 36% | -2.7 | -0.4 | +16.9 | -13.8 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 8,000 | 38% | 0% | 38% | 24% | -12.9 | -2.1 | -25.1 | +40.1 |
| South 4 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 16% | 0% | 9% | 76% | -21.7 | -2.8 | +59.2 | -34.7 |