Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
10/7 Game 1
Honda Tomohiro finished 1st (+67.4pt). The game was decided in South 1: Honda Tomohiro tsumo 18,000, which moved Honda Tomohiro's expected points by +49.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Murakami Jun 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Murakami Jun Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 27% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -5.1 | -1.0 | +7.3 | -1.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho tsumo 12,000 | 23% | 22% | 30% | 25% | -9.6 | -17.1 | +32.0 | -5.2 |
| East 3 | Draw | 13% | 11% | 58% | 18% | +4.6 | 0.0 | -5.4 | +0.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 4,000 | 16% | 11% | 54% | 19% | +15.5 | -4.6 | +0.7 | -11.6 |
| South 1 | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 18,000 | 25% | 10% | 55% | 11% | +49.1 | -14.3 | -23.3 | -11.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 76% | 3% | 17% | 4% | 0.0 | +3.4 | -1.9 | -1.5 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Kondo Seiichi tsumo 2,000 | 80% | 3% | 14% | 3% | +2.4 | -10.2 | -1.6 | +9.4 |
| South 3 | Shiratori Sho ron 5,800 from Kondo Seiichi | 87% | 0% | 10% | 3% | -4.0 | +3.5 | +14.7 | -14.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro ron 3,900 from Murakami Jun | 78% | 0% | 20% | 2% | +11.7 | -9.3 | -6.8 | +4.4 |
| South 4 | Murakami Jun tsumo 5,200 | 95% | 0% | 4% | 1% | +1.0 | +21.9 | -1.7 | -21.2 |