Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
10/8 Game 1
Takaya Matsugase finished 1st (+62.6pt). The game was decided in East 1: Takaya Matsugase tsumo 12,000, which moved Takaya Matsugase's expected points by +33.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -14.9 | -8.7 | -9.5 | +33.1 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 17% | 18% | 52% | -2.2 | -3.7 | +4.1 | +1.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 2,000 from Mari Takamiya | 13% | 14% | 18% | 56% | -1.9 | +9.3 | -9.2 | +1.8 |
| East 4 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 12,000 | 11% | 18% | 12% | 59% | -7.6 | -9.1 | -9.1 | +25.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 7% | 5% | 84% | +3.8 | -7.6 | +3.5 | +0.3 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 6% | 5% | 85% | +0.8 | +1.7 | -0.3 | -2.2 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 5% | 6% | 85% | -4.2 | +4.9 | -0.4 | -0.2 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 7% | 6% | 86% | +42.8 | -25.1 | -11.5 | -6.2 |
| South 3 | Mari Takamiya ron 2,900 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 17% | 0% | 3% | 80% | -0.8 | -7.6 | +8.9 | -0.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 16% | 0% | 5% | 79% | -0.5 | +24.1 | -28.9 | +5.3 |
| South 4 | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 2,600 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 9% | 0% | 0% | 91% | -5.1 | +3.1 | -0.7 | +2.6 |