Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
10/8 Game 2
Makoto Sawazaki finished 1st (+68.2pt). The game was decided in East 4, 1 honba: Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 12,000, which moved Makoto Sawazaki's expected points by +32.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Koshin Asakura 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Koshin Asakura Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 8,000 | 27% | 25% | 24% | 24% | -14.1 | -8.4 | -4.5 | +27.0 |
| East 2 | Koshin Asakura tsumo 2,000 | 16% | 18% | 21% | 45% | -0.8 | -5.7 | +6.9 | -0.4 |
| East 3 | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 2,700 | 16% | 14% | 25% | 46% | +8.2 | +0.5 | -8.9 | +0.2 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 15% | 18% | 47% | -4.4 | -3.7 | +3.6 | +4.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 13% | 20% | 51% | -9.7 | -8.7 | -13.9 | +32.3 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 3,000 | 6% | 5% | 6% | 84% | -1.6 | -3.2 | -1.0 | +5.8 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 4% | 3% | 4% | 89% | -21.5 | +21.7 | +1.0 | -1.2 |
| South 1 | Arisa Date ron 5,200 from Rumi Nikaido | 1% | 6% | 4% | 89% | -14.7 | +14.7 | -0.4 | +0.4 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 0% | 8% | 3% | 90% | -14.6 | +20.4 | -0.8 | -4.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Koshin Asakura ron 2,000 from Arisa Date | 0% | 21% | 2% | 77% | +0.6 | -8.0 | +3.3 | +4.1 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 10% | 3% | 87% | -1.1 | -1.1 | +3.0 | -0.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Rumi Nikaido ron 12,000 from Arisa Date | 0% | 10% | 4% | 86% | +14.0 | -19.5 | -0.3 | +5.8 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +0.6 | +7.4 | -3.7 | -4.2 |