Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
10/8 Game 2
Sawazaki Makoto finished 1st (+68.2pt). The game was decided in East 4, 1 honba: Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 12,000, which moved Sawazaki Makoto's expected points by +29.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Rumi 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Asakura Koshin 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Nikaido Rumi Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Asakura Koshin Expected pt change | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 8,000 | 27% | 22% | 25% | 26% | -12.6 | -7.6 | -3.3 | +23.5 |
| East 2 | Asakura Koshin tsumo 2,000 | 18% | 17% | 21% | 44% | -1.7 | -3.2 | +3.9 | +1.0 |
| East 3 | Nikaido Rumi tsumo 2,700 | 15% | 15% | 24% | 46% | +7.5 | -1.6 | -4.4 | -1.4 |
| East 4 | Draw | 20% | 15% | 20% | 45% | -4.3 | -3.3 | 0.0 | +7.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 13% | 18% | 52% | -10.4 | -7.7 | -11.6 | +29.7 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 3,000 | 5% | 5% | 6% | 83% | -1.4 | -2.3 | -2.2 | +5.9 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Date Arisa ron 8,000 from Nikaido Rumi | 5% | 3% | 5% | 88% | -20.5 | +22.0 | -0.1 | -1.3 |
| South 1 | Date Arisa ron 5,200 from Nikaido Rumi | 2% | 6% | 4% | 88% | -15.5 | +12.7 | +1.4 | +1.4 |
| South 2 | Date Arisa ron 12,000 from Nikaido Rumi | 0% | 8% | 4% | 89% | -13.7 | +20.1 | -1.5 | -4.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Asakura Koshin ron 2,000 from Date Arisa | 0% | 20% | 3% | 78% | +0.2 | -7.3 | +2.6 | +4.5 |
| South 3 | Draw | 0% | 10% | 3% | 88% | -0.9 | -1.2 | +3.0 | -0.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Nikaido Rumi ron 12,000 from Date Arisa | 0% | 10% | 3% | 87% | +13.9 | -19.2 | +0.2 | +5.1 |
| South 4 | Draw | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +0.4 | +7.3 | -3.9 | -3.8 |