Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
10/11 Game 2
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+72.3pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +46.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 27% | 24% | 25% | -4.4 | +5.9 | +0.9 | -2.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 31% | 25% | 23% | +3.2 | -4.4 | +3.9 | -2.8 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 2,000 | 24% | 26% | 28% | 22% | -2.9 | -1.1 | -7.3 | +11.3 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 7,800 | 22% | 26% | 22% | 30% | -7.2 | -7.5 | -7.9 | +22.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 12,000 from Aiko Hinata | 16% | 19% | 16% | 49% | +0.8 | +36.3 | -30.7 | -6.4 |
| South 1 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 4,000 | 13% | 47% | 3% | 37% | -10.6 | +3.5 | +7.7 | -0.7 |
| South 2 | Masato Hagiwara ron 3,900 from Sayaka Kayamori | 6% | 52% | 6% | 37% | +1.2 | +14.2 | +0.6 | -16.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 73% | 4% | 18% | -6.8 | -30.7 | -8.9 | +46.4 |
| South 3 | Masato Hagiwara ron 3,900 from Kazunori Takizawa | 1% | 20% | 2% | 77% | -8.3 | +18.6 | -1.8 | -8.5 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 44% | 0% | 56% | -4.1 | -20.6 | -4.1 | +28.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 2,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 0% | 2% | 0% | 98% | +9.9 | -3.6 | -5.9 | -0.3 |