Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
10/12 Game 2
Takaya Matsugase finished 1st (+68.4pt). The game was decided in South 4: Takaya Matsugase tsumo 12,000, which moved Takaya Matsugase's expected points by +45.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Taro Suzuki | 26% | 24% | 24% | 25% | -3.2 | +2.2 | -21.0 | +21.9 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 23% | 13% | 42% | -0.1 | -5.2 | +6.4 | -1.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 2,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 22% | 20% | 16% | 42% | +0.3 | +9.3 | -2.9 | -6.7 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 23% | 27% | 15% | 36% | +39.6 | -6.8 | -10.9 | -21.8 |
| South 1 | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,600 from Sayaka Okada | 58% | 19% | 7% | 15% | -5.9 | -6.2 | -1.6 | +13.7 |
| South 2 | Taro Suzuki ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 52% | 16% | 7% | 25% | -23.6 | -1.9 | +19.8 | +5.7 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Okada ron 2,000 from Go Kobayashi | 29% | 17% | 19% | 35% | +19.0 | -14.2 | -5.8 | +1.0 |
| South 4 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 12,000 | 55% | 9% | 9% | 27% | -27.8 | -8.1 | -9.0 | +45.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 7,800 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 96% | -3.2 | -5.9 | -1.4 | +10.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 2,600 from Go Kobayashi | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +9.5 | -11.5 | +3.0 | -0.9 |