Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
10/14 Game 1
Koshin Asakura finished 1st (+64.9pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Koshin Asakura tsumo 12,000, which moved Koshin Asakura's expected points by +52.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Koshin Asakura 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Koshin Asakura Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Koshin Asakura tsumo 18,000 | 24% | 26% | 26% | 25% | +46.5 | -15.3 | -16.3 | -15.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Koshin Asakura ron 5,800 from Sho Shiratori | 61% | 14% | 13% | 13% | +13.3 | -3.2 | +0.9 | -11.0 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 74% | 9% | 10% | 8% | +2.3 | -2.5 | +4.9 | -4.7 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 8,000 | 75% | 8% | 11% | 6% | -7.2 | -7.6 | -5.4 | +20.1 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 72% | 7% | 10% | 12% | -0.2 | -5.6 | -3.9 | +9.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 71% | 5% | 8% | 16% | +1.5 | -2.2 | +3.2 | -2.6 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 73% | 4% | 9% | 14% | -1.1 | -1.5 | +4.1 | -1.5 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 5,200 from Koshin Asakura | 72% | 4% | 11% | 14% | -11.0 | -1.9 | -3.5 | +16.5 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 61% | 4% | 10% | 25% | -0.7 | -3.5 | +5.1 | -0.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000 | 61% | 3% | 11% | 24% | -27.0 | -6.2 | -7.2 | +40.4 |
| South 2 | Mari Takamiya ron 1,500 from Koshin Asakura | 19% | 2% | 6% | 72% | -5.5 | +4.4 | -1.3 | +2.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 2,900 from Sho Shiratori | 15% | 2% | 6% | 77% | +2.9 | +5.0 | -0.4 | -7.5 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 7,800 | 21% | 3% | 7% | 68% | -7.1 | +21.0 | -9.0 | -4.8 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Koshin Asakura ron 5,200 from Aki Nikaido | 20% | 9% | 7% | 64% | +18.2 | -3.4 | -13.8 | -1.0 |
| South 3 | Sho Shiratori ron 3,200 from Aki Nikaido | 34% | 3% | 3% | 60% | -5.3 | +1.3 | -10.5 | +14.4 |
| South 4 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 7,800 | 16% | 0% | 0% | 84% | -7.5 | -2.7 | -2.8 | +13.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 0% | 0% | 97% | +2.0 | -2.2 | -1.5 | +1.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Koshin Asakura tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 97% | +52.1 | -2.5 | -3.4 | -46.2 |