Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
10/14 Game 2
Takaya Matsugase finished 1st (+60.7pt). The game was decided in South 4: Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki, which moved Takaya Matsugase's expected points by +44.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Nobuhiro Ishibashi 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Nobuhiro Ishibashi Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 26% | 24% | 26% | -4.5 | -0.9 | +8.9 | -3.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 5,800 from Nobuhiro Ishibashi | 20% | 25% | 31% | 24% | +0.4 | +14.5 | -15.2 | +0.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi ron 3,900 from Takaharu Ooi | 21% | 34% | 21% | 24% | -11.1 | -0.2 | +9.8 | +1.6 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 34% | 27% | 24% | -2.0 | +0.6 | +6.5 | -5.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 34% | 31% | 20% | -3.6 | -1.8 | +7.3 | -1.9 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Nobuhiro Ishibashi tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 32% | 37% | 20% | -8.4 | -15.0 | +33.8 | -10.4 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 3,900 from Takaharu Ooi | 6% | 15% | 69% | 10% | -10.7 | +13.0 | -0.8 | -1.5 |
| East 4 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 5,200 | 3% | 20% | 68% | 9% | -2.9 | +15.0 | -2.5 | -9.7 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 31% | 63% | 4% | +3.0 | -0.6 | -3.8 | +1.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 4,000 | 3% | 33% | 59% | 5% | -12.0 | -3.4 | +1.1 | +14.3 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 28% | 63% | 9% | +3.4 | -1.7 | +1.3 | -3.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 26% | 67% | 7% | +5.4 | -3.2 | +1.3 | -3.4 |
| South 4 | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 0% | 18% | 76% | 6% | +16.0 | +44.5 | -29.3 | -31.2 |