Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
10/15 Game 1
Makoto Sawazaki finished 1st (+62.6pt). The game was decided in South 1: Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 16,000, which moved Makoto Sawazaki's expected points by +49.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 6,000 | 25% | 26% | 26% | 23% | +15.9 | -6.6 | -7.5 | -1.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 8,000 from Jun Murakami | 37% | 21% | 20% | 22% | -0.7 | -1.2 | +26.4 | -24.5 |
| East 2 | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Jun Murakami | 35% | 19% | 37% | 9% | +17.7 | -2.2 | +0.1 | -15.6 |
| East 3 | Saki Kurosawa ron 3,900 from Seiichi Kondo | 49% | 13% | 33% | 5% | +13.1 | +1.5 | -14.3 | -0.3 |
| East 4 | Jun Murakami ron 12,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 65% | 12% | 19% | 4% | -28.8 | -0.7 | +2.6 | +26.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 1,300 from Jun Murakami | 37% | 18% | 29% | 16% | +1.1 | +10.0 | -1.8 | -9.2 |
| South 1 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 16,000 | 39% | 25% | 26% | 10% | -27.7 | +49.1 | -12.9 | -8.5 |
| South 2 | Seiichi Kondo ron 8,000 from Jun Murakami | 8% | 77% | 10% | 5% | -3.3 | -1.8 | +22.7 | -17.6 |
| South 3 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 2,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 5% | 74% | 21% | 1% | -2.0 | +12.9 | -8.8 | -2.1 |
| South 4 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 95% | 4% | 1% | -4.7 | +0.4 | +11.6 | -7.3 |