Game · 2021-22 Regular Season

10/15 Game 2

Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+61.9pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Kondo Seiichi, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +41.7.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance	Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance	Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance	Uchikawa Kotaro 1st-place chance	Sonoda Ken Expected pt change	Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change	Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change	Uchikawa Kotaro Expected pt change
East 1	Draw	23%	26%	26%	25%	-2.3	-3.1	-1.2	+6.7
East 2, 1 honba	Sonoda Ken tsumo 8,000	23%	24%	24%	29%	+27.4	-14.8	-8.4	-4.2
East 3	Draw	43%	13%	18%	26%	-3.2	-4.1	+11.2	-3.9
East 3, 1 honba	Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Sonoda Ken	41%	11%	24%	23%	-37.0	+3.4	+31.8	+1.8
East 3, 2 honba	Draw	13%	13%	51%	23%	-0.5	+3.0	+2.0	-4.5
East 3, 3 honba	Draw	13%	14%	53%	20%	-2.9	-1.8	+6.6	-1.9
East 3, 4 honba	Sonoda Ken ron 2,600 from Setokuma Naoki	10%	11%	61%	18%	+14.7	-2.4	-11.7	-0.7
East 4	Sonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki	19%	12%	50%	19%	+29.6	+0.6	-25.3	-5.0
South 1	Draw	46%	13%	25%	16%	+4.9	-0.2	-2.1	-2.6
South 1, 1 honba	Sonoda Ken ron 2,900 from Uchikawa Kotaro	51%	13%	22%	14%	+14.4	-2.5	-1.9	-10.0
South 1, 2 honba	Draw	66%	9%	17%	8%	-3.0	-1.6	+7.8	-3.2
South 2, 3 honba	Kondo Seiichi ron 3,900 from Sonoda Ken	65%	8%	22%	6%	-13.1	+18.2	-0.4	-4.8
South 2, 4 honba	Sonoda Ken ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki	50%	18%	26%	7%	+20.7	-2.4	-16.5	-1.8
South 3	Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000	78%	7%	11%	5%	-16.6	-14.5	+38.8	-7.6
South 3, 1 honba	Draw	50%	4%	44%	3%	+11.0	+2.4	-10.1	-3.3
South 4, 2 honba	Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Kondo Seiichi	70%	2%	24%	3%	-27.0	-8.3	+41.7	-6.4

All 2021-22 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)