Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
10/15 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+61.9pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Seiichi Kondo, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +41.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -3.2 | -1.3 | -3.0 | +7.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 24% | 22% | 29% | +24.9 | -15.0 | -4.8 | -5.2 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 43% | 13% | 19% | 25% | -3.7 | -3.7 | +8.6 | -1.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda | 40% | 13% | 24% | 24% | -32.9 | +1.8 | +31.4 | -0.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 12% | 51% | 24% | -2.0 | +5.5 | +2.4 | -5.9 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 14% | 54% | 19% | -3.0 | -2.2 | +5.5 | -0.3 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 2,600 from Naoki Setokuma | 11% | 13% | 58% | 18% | +13.8 | -3.3 | -8.7 | -1.8 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 19% | 12% | 51% | 18% | +31.2 | -0.4 | -26.8 | -4.0 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 48% | 12% | 26% | 14% | +5.2 | -1.7 | -2.9 | -0.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 2,900 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 53% | 11% | 21% | 15% | +11.4 | +0.5 | -0.7 | -11.2 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 65% | 10% | 17% | 8% | -1.1 | -1.8 | +6.5 | -3.6 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 3,900 from Ken Sonoda | 65% | 9% | 20% | 7% | -12.6 | +17.0 | +0.9 | -5.3 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 50% | 17% | 26% | 7% | +20.3 | -2.2 | -17.3 | -0.8 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 80% | 6% | 9% | 5% | -16.8 | -14.2 | +39.8 | -8.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 50% | 4% | 44% | 3% | +11.2 | +3.3 | -10.1 | -4.3 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 71% | 3% | 25% | 2% | -27.6 | -8.9 | +41.5 | -5.0 |