Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
10/19 Game 2
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+57.7pt). The game was decided in South 4: Kenji Katsumata ron 12,000 from Tomohiro Honda, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +59.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Shingo Hori tsumo 6,000 | 25% | 25% | 26% | 24% | +15.3 | -3.8 | -6.7 | -4.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Shingo Hori ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 36% | 22% | 21% | 22% | +28.4 | -2.1 | +0.5 | -26.9 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 12,000 | 59% | 17% | 16% | 7% | +24.3 | -8.4 | -10.7 | -5.2 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Shingo Hori | 82% | 8% | 7% | 4% | -16.9 | -3.1 | +21.3 | -1.3 |
| East 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 12,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 66% | 9% | 20% | 5% | +2.0 | -26.3 | -0.3 | +24.5 |
| East 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 70% | 2% | 18% | 9% | +0.4 | -12.9 | -2.9 | +15.5 |
| East 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 3,900 from Shingo Hori | 71% | 1% | 13% | 15% | -9.8 | 0.0 | -1.3 | +11.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 59% | 2% | 15% | 24% | +1.1 | -2.4 | +5.3 | -3.9 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 8,000 | 61% | 1% | 18% | 20% | -6.3 | +12.6 | -2.1 | -4.2 |
| South 2 | Tomohiro Honda ron 12,000 from Shingo Hori | 60% | 3% | 18% | 19% | -36.5 | +26.2 | +6.0 | +4.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 25% | 13% | 32% | 30% | +2.0 | -5.7 | +18.4 | -14.6 |
| South 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000 | 23% | 7% | 51% | 20% | -15.7 | -10.9 | -30.2 | +56.8 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 12,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 6% | 1% | 6% | 87% | -5.4 | -18.6 | +59.7 | -35.6 |