Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
10/19 Game 2
Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+57.7pt). The game was decided in South 4: Katsumata Kenji ron 12,000 from Honda Tomohiro, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +58.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hori Shingo tsumo 6,000 | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +14.4 | -4.6 | -2.3 | -7.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Hori Shingo ron 12,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 36% | 21% | 23% | 20% | +29.6 | -1.5 | -1.4 | -26.7 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Hori Shingo tsumo 12,000 | 62% | 16% | 16% | 7% | +22.7 | -8.2 | -8.7 | -5.8 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Hori Shingo | 81% | 8% | 8% | 3% | -17.0 | -0.8 | +18.8 | -1.1 |
| East 2 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 12,000 from Honda Tomohiro | 67% | 10% | 19% | 4% | +2.0 | -28.5 | +0.3 | +26.2 |
| East 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 8,000 from Honda Tomohiro | 69% | 2% | 18% | 10% | +1.6 | -12.9 | -3.5 | +14.8 |
| East 4 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 3,900 from Hori Shingo | 72% | 1% | 13% | 14% | -10.2 | -0.7 | -0.3 | +11.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 60% | 1% | 15% | 23% | +1.0 | -2.3 | +5.3 | -4.0 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 8,000 | 62% | 1% | 18% | 19% | -6.2 | +13.7 | -4.1 | -3.4 |
| South 2 | Honda Tomohiro ron 12,000 from Hori Shingo | 60% | 3% | 18% | 19% | -37.1 | +26.3 | +6.8 | +3.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 3,900 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 25% | 14% | 31% | 30% | +3.4 | -5.9 | +18.5 | -15.9 |
| South 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 8% | 49% | 18% | -16.1 | -12.1 | -28.9 | +57.0 |
| South 4 | Katsumata Kenji ron 12,000 from Honda Tomohiro | 7% | 2% | 7% | 84% | -6.6 | -17.6 | +58.7 | -34.4 |