Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
10/22 Game 2
Takamiya Mari finished 1st (+65.5pt). The game was decided in South 1: Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000, which moved Takamiya Mari's expected points by +32.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Kondo Seiichi 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change | Kondo Seiichi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 27% | 23% | 25% | +4.4 | -3.5 | +2.6 | -3.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sawazaki Makoto ron 2,000 from Takamiya Mari | 27% | 24% | 26% | 24% | -6.9 | -0.8 | +8.2 | -0.5 |
| East 2 | Katsumata Kenji ron 12,000 from Sawazaki Makoto | 23% | 23% | 32% | 23% | -0.3 | +28.8 | -30.2 | +1.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sawazaki Makoto tsumo 4,000 | 20% | 44% | 13% | 23% | -0.8 | -5.3 | +9.4 | -3.3 |
| East 3 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 8,000 | 21% | 40% | 18% | 21% | +21.8 | -4.0 | -12.5 | -5.3 |
| East 4 | Sawazaki Makoto ron 1,300 from Katsumata Kenji | 36% | 35% | 11% | 18% | +3.3 | -1.7 | +2.9 | -4.5 |
| South 1 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 12,000 | 40% | 34% | 12% | 14% | +32.7 | -13.6 | -9.7 | -9.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari ron 2,900 from Sawazaki Makoto | 75% | 14% | 5% | 5% | +7.2 | -1.8 | -7.3 | +1.8 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 1,000 from Kondo Seiichi | 83% | 11% | 2% | 4% | -1.9 | +5.2 | -0.7 | -2.7 |
| South 2 | Katsumata Kenji ron 1,500 from Sawazaki Makoto | 82% | 10% | 3% | 5% | +1.1 | +2.9 | -3.5 | -0.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Takamiya Mari tsumo 5,200 | 84% | 11% | 1% | 4% | +12.7 | -9.5 | -1.4 | -1.7 |
| South 3 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 8,000 | 97% | 0% | 2% | 1% | +9.0 | +1.7 | -12.0 | +1.3 |
| South 4 | Kondo Seiichi tsumo 12,000 | 99% | 0% | 0% | 1% | -4.1 | -17.0 | -5.3 | +26.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sawazaki Makoto ron 12,000 from Takamiya Mari | 98% | 0% | 0% | 2% | -11.7 | -3.6 | +13.5 | +1.8 |