Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
10/26 Game 2
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+52.3pt). The game was decided in East 3: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 16,000, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +42.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | +1.9 | -3.3 | -1.9 | +3.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,600 from Yuumi Uotani | 28% | 23% | 22% | 27% | -2.8 | -7.4 | +13.6 | -3.4 |
| East 2 | Yuumi Uotani tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 18% | 32% | 25% | -11.5 | +31.4 | -12.0 | -7.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Yuumi Uotani ron 1,500 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 17% | 39% | 24% | 20% | +0.6 | +5.4 | +0.3 | -6.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 45% | 23% | 16% | +4.7 | +2.8 | -4.3 | -3.2 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 47% | 19% | 14% | +1.9 | +3.6 | -4.7 | -0.8 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 19% | 51% | 17% | 13% | +1.8 | -2.1 | +22.7 | -22.4 |
| East 3 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 16,000 | 19% | 47% | 28% | 6% | +42.4 | -10.8 | -23.2 | -8.4 |
| East 4 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 3,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 56% | 31% | 10% | 3% | -0.4 | -1.0 | -8.5 | +9.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 12,000 | 57% | 30% | 8% | 6% | -7.2 | -8.4 | -14.1 | +29.7 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 51% | 26% | 6% | 17% | -7.4 | -6.8 | +39.0 | -24.7 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 44% | 24% | 25% | 7% | -4.4 | +3.7 | +3.8 | -3.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 12,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 40% | 25% | 28% | 6% | +5.5 | +0.1 | -43.9 | +38.3 |
| South 3 | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,600 from Saki Kurosawa | 48% | 23% | 7% | 22% | +16.0 | -0.4 | -12.0 | -3.6 |
| South 4 | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 3,000 | 73% | 12% | 0% | 14% | -2.4 | -10.4 | -2.3 | +15.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 70% | 10% | 0% | 20% | +12.4 | +13.7 | -1.3 | -24.8 |