Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
10/28 Game 1
Rumi Nikaido finished 1st (+60.3pt). The game was decided in South 4: Rumi Nikaido tsumo 12,000, which moved Rumi Nikaido's expected points by +56.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Makoto Sawazaki ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | +31.0 | -27.8 | -2.7 | -0.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 49% | 9% | 19% | 23% | +3.9 | +0.7 | -5.9 | +1.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 53% | 9% | 17% | 21% | -17.2 | +32.6 | -8.6 | -6.8 |
| East 2 | Rumi Nikaido ron 1,300 from Naoki Setokuma | 38% | 27% | 14% | 21% | +4.2 | -8.0 | +3.0 | +0.8 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 42% | 20% | 16% | 21% | -5.8 | +25.5 | -13.1 | -6.5 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 35% | 41% | 8% | 17% | -1.4 | -2.7 | -3.7 | +7.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 34% | 38% | 7% | 21% | -10.7 | -7.7 | +41.4 | -23.0 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 32% | 30% | 11% | +6.9 | +1.1 | -4.0 | -4.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 1,100 | 32% | 33% | 26% | 9% | -5.5 | +9.5 | -1.4 | -2.5 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 42% | 25% | 8% | -3.8 | +3.3 | -2.2 | +2.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Rumi Nikaido ron 2,600 from Makoto Sawazaki | 22% | 46% | 23% | 8% | -11.5 | +1.9 | +13.9 | -4.3 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,600 from Rumi Nikaido | 14% | 50% | 30% | 6% | -2.9 | +16.8 | -11.8 | -2.1 |
| South 4 | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 6% | 78% | 11% | 5% | -7.8 | -32.3 | +56.7 | -16.6 |