Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
10/28 Game 1
Nikaido Rumi finished 1st (+60.3pt). The game was decided in South 4: Nikaido Rumi tsumo 12,000, which moved Nikaido Rumi's expected points by +57.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sawazaki Makoto 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Nikaido Rumi 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Sawazaki Makoto Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Nikaido Rumi Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sawazaki Makoto ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 25% | 23% | 26% | 26% | +32.0 | -26.0 | -4.5 | -1.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Draw | 50% | 10% | 19% | 22% | +2.6 | +0.6 | -5.0 | +1.8 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 52% | 10% | 16% | 22% | -16.3 | +29.9 | -7.7 | -5.9 |
| East 2 | Nikaido Rumi ron 1,300 from Setokuma Naoki | 38% | 25% | 15% | 23% | +2.9 | -4.4 | +2.0 | -0.5 |
| East 3 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 41% | 22% | 16% | 21% | -5.1 | +24.3 | -14.1 | -5.1 |
| East 4 | Draw | 35% | 40% | 8% | 17% | -2.5 | -2.7 | -1.7 | +6.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Nikaido Rumi tsumo 12,000 | 33% | 38% | 8% | 21% | -11.0 | -6.9 | +42.0 | -24.1 |
| South 1 | Draw | 25% | 34% | 32% | 10% | +7.6 | +1.6 | -4.3 | -4.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 1,100 | 31% | 34% | 27% | 7% | -3.7 | +10.7 | -4.5 | -2.5 |
| South 2 | Draw | 26% | 45% | 23% | 6% | -5.3 | +1.8 | -2.3 | +5.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Nikaido Rumi ron 2,600 from Sawazaki Makoto | 22% | 47% | 22% | 9% | -10.5 | +1.3 | +15.3 | -6.0 |
| South 3 | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,600 from Nikaido Rumi | 13% | 50% | 30% | 6% | -2.1 | +17.6 | -12.3 | -3.2 |
| South 4 | Nikaido Rumi tsumo 12,000 | 8% | 79% | 9% | 4% | -8.9 | -33.3 | +57.4 | -15.2 |