Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
11/1 Game 2
Go Kobayashi finished 1st (+60.8pt). The game was decided in East 4: Go Kobayashi tsumo 5,200, which moved Go Kobayashi's expected points by +18.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 24% | 25% | +6.4 | +4.9 | -6.6 | -4.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 4,000 | 31% | 27% | 19% | 23% | -9.1 | -4.7 | +0.1 | +13.7 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 25% | 20% | 32% | -3.9 | +8.5 | -4.2 | -0.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Shingo Hori ron 2,600 from Arisa Date | 19% | 31% | 18% | 32% | -6.1 | -1.8 | +1.6 | +6.3 |
| East 3 | Go Kobayashi ron 3,900 from Jun Murakami | 17% | 27% | 18% | 37% | +0.7 | +17.0 | -17.5 | -0.1 |
| East 4 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 5,200 | 17% | 41% | 9% | 33% | -5.0 | +18.9 | -3.5 | -10.5 |
| South 1 | Go Kobayashi ron 1,300 from Jun Murakami | 10% | 63% | 7% | 20% | -4.5 | +8.0 | -4.8 | +1.3 |
| South 2 | Shingo Hori ron 1,000 from Arisa Date | 4% | 75% | 3% | 17% | -2.1 | +0.6 | -1.7 | +3.2 |
| South 3 | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Jun Murakami | 3% | 78% | 3% | 16% | +17.9 | +2.9 | -17.8 | -3.0 |
| South 4 | Shingo Hori ron 7,700 from Arisa Date | 3% | 84% | 0% | 13% | -16.7 | -1.7 | +0.3 | +18.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 79% | 0% | 21% | -2.1 | -4.4 | +1.6 | +4.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 71% | 0% | 29% | -1.9 | +2.1 | -1.3 | +1.0 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Jun Murakami | 0% | 72% | 0% | 28% | +15.8 | +11.2 | -14.5 | -12.5 |