Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
11/2 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+68.4pt). The game was decided in South 4: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +52.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 27% | 26% | 23% | 24% | -17.6 | -5.7 | -2.6 | +26.0 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 20% | 22% | 45% | -2.4 | -5.1 | +2.8 | +4.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 16% | 22% | 49% | +26.7 | -10.2 | -14.4 | -2.1 |
| East 4 | Yuumi Uotani ron 3,900 from Rumi Nikaido | 29% | 11% | 13% | 47% | -1.7 | -8.3 | +11.5 | -1.5 |
| South 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 27% | 9% | 18% | 47% | -14.4 | -8.1 | -3.4 | +25.8 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 3% | 11% | 77% | +10.0 | -6.9 | -4.3 | +1.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Yuumi Uotani ron 12,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 9% | 1% | 8% | 82% | -6.6 | -18.7 | +32.0 | -6.7 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 9% | 0% | 24% | 67% | +19.7 | -8.0 | -12.5 | +0.8 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 0% | 11% | 69% | +52.5 | -3.7 | -15.3 | -33.5 |