Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
11/11 Game 1
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+70.5pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Kenji Katsumata ron 12,000 from Seiichi Kondo, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +32.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 7,700 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 28% | 22% | 25% | 25% | +18.8 | -17.9 | -2.4 | +1.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 2,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 40% | 13% | 22% | 25% | -0.9 | +4.8 | -2.8 | -1.2 |
| East 2 | Seiichi Kondo ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 40% | 14% | 21% | 25% | -21.9 | -1.5 | +20.6 | +2.8 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 15% | 35% | 27% | -1.1 | -3.1 | +8.4 | -4.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 2,700 | 22% | 12% | 43% | 23% | +13.9 | -2.4 | -9.5 | -2.1 |
| East 4 | Seiichi Kondo ron 3,900 from Tomohiro Honda | 32% | 11% | 35% | 22% | -0.6 | +0.5 | +17.1 | -17.1 |
| South 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,500 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 27% | 10% | 52% | 10% | +9.1 | -7.1 | -1.6 | -0.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 35% | 8% | 47% | 10% | +6.2 | +5.5 | -5.3 | -6.4 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 12,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 42% | 9% | 41% | 8% | +32.5 | +0.6 | -35.5 | +2.4 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 82% | 5% | 9% | 5% | -2.0 | -5.3 | +4.8 | +2.5 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 12,000 | 82% | 4% | 8% | 5% | -9.5 | -16.8 | +34.4 | -8.1 |
| South 3 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 5,200 | 67% | 0% | 30% | 3% | +17.4 | -3.7 | -13.6 | 0.0 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 94% | 0% | 5% | 1% | +6.3 | -7.9 | -0.4 | +2.0 |