Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
11/12 Game 1
Date Arisa finished 1st (+78.5pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Date Arisa ron 12,000 from Asakura Koshin, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +27.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Asakura Koshin 1st-place chance | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Asakura Koshin Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Date Arisa ron 12,000 from Asakura Koshin | 28% | 24% | 24% | 24% | +26.7 | +1.3 | -1.5 | -26.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 12,000 from Asakura Koshin | 47% | 23% | 21% | 10% | +27.4 | -3.6 | +0.7 | -24.5 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 70% | 13% | 15% | 2% | +20.5 | -7.2 | -9.1 | -4.2 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Suzuki Taro ron 8,000 from Date Arisa | 88% | 6% | 6% | 1% | -14.9 | +18.3 | -2.7 | -0.7 |
| East 2 | Hinata Aiko tsumo 4,000 | 75% | 16% | 8% | 2% | -0.4 | -7.2 | +10.8 | -3.3 |
| East 3 | Draw | 76% | 12% | 11% | 1% | +0.8 | +4.9 | -6.7 | +1.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 8,000 | 80% | 12% | 7% | 1% | +15.1 | -5.5 | -2.0 | -7.7 |
| South 1 | Date Arisa tsumo 4,800 | 93% | 4% | 2% | 0% | +7.0 | -3.1 | -2.4 | -1.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Asakura Koshin ron 2,000 from Date Arisa | 96% | 2% | 2% | 0% | -3.2 | +0.7 | -0.1 | +2.6 |
| South 2 | Suzuki Taro tsumo 18,000 | 96% | 2% | 2% | 0% | -10.6 | +29.6 | -12.3 | -6.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 2,000 from Hinata Aiko | 84% | 15% | 1% | 0% | +6.9 | -4.6 | -2.6 | +0.2 |
| South 3 | Hinata Aiko ron 12,000 from Asakura Koshin | 95% | 5% | 1% | 0% | -0.6 | -1.1 | +14.8 | -13.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hinata Aiko ron 3,900 from Suzuki Taro | 93% | 5% | 2% | 0% | +0.7 | -7.6 | +7.2 | -0.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Draw | 94% | 2% | 4% | 0% | -1.3 | -1.6 | +3.3 | -0.5 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Hinata Aiko tsumo 2,400 | 93% | 3% | 4% | 0% | -1.6 | -4.7 | +7.5 | -1.2 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Draw | 93% | 2% | 6% | 0% | +2.2 | +0.6 | -4.9 | +2.1 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Draw | 99% | 1% | 0% | 0% | +1.0 | +9.2 | -7.7 | -2.5 |