Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
11/12 Game 1
Arisa Date finished 1st (+78.5pt). The game was decided in East 1: Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Koshin Asakura, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +31.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Koshin Asakura 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Koshin Asakura Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Koshin Asakura | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +31.5 | +0.1 | -1.2 | -30.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Koshin Asakura | 49% | 21% | 22% | 8% | +24.9 | -1.1 | -2.6 | -21.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 69% | 14% | 14% | 2% | +20.4 | -8.8 | -5.6 | -6.0 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 8,000 from Arisa Date | 87% | 6% | 7% | 1% | -14.6 | +16.3 | -2.0 | +0.4 |
| East 2 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 4,000 | 75% | 15% | 8% | 2% | +1.2 | -5.4 | +6.8 | -2.6 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 78% | 11% | 10% | 1% | -1.1 | +3.8 | -3.9 | +1.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 79% | 13% | 7% | 2% | +15.7 | -3.9 | -3.8 | -8.0 |
| South 1 | Arisa Date tsumo 4,800 | 93% | 4% | 2% | 0% | +7.2 | -4.1 | -1.2 | -1.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Koshin Asakura ron 2,000 from Arisa Date | 97% | 2% | 1% | 0% | -3.3 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +2.9 |
| South 2 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 18,000 | 96% | 2% | 2% | 0% | -10.8 | +30.3 | -13.0 | -6.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 2,000 from Aiko Hinata | 84% | 15% | 1% | 0% | +6.3 | -3.9 | -2.4 | 0.0 |
| South 3 | Aiko Hinata ron 12,000 from Koshin Asakura | 93% | 6% | 1% | 0% | -0.1 | -0.9 | +14.1 | -13.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 3,900 from Taro Suzuki | 92% | 6% | 2% | 0% | +1.1 | -7.8 | +7.0 | -0.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 95% | 2% | 3% | 0% | -1.9 | -1.5 | +3.8 | -0.4 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 2,400 | 93% | 3% | 4% | 0% | -1.2 | -5.0 | +7.9 | -1.6 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 92% | 2% | 6% | 0% | +2.3 | +1.1 | -5.8 | +2.4 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Exhaustive draw | 99% | 1% | 0% | 0% | +1.1 | +8.2 | -6.7 | -2.5 |