Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
11/15 Game 2
Mari Takamiya finished 1st (+72.1pt). The game was decided in East 1: Mari Takamiya ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma, which moved Mari Takamiya's expected points by +29.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Jun Murakami 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Jun Murakami Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mari Takamiya ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 26% | 24% | 23% | 26% | +29.4 | -27.4 | -0.2 | -1.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 46% | 10% | 21% | 22% | -3.3 | -8.7 | +1.3 | +10.7 |
| East 2 | Takaharu Ooi ron 2,600 from Naoki Setokuma | 43% | 7% | 21% | 29% | +2.1 | -9.9 | -2.4 | +10.2 |
| East 3 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 43% | 3% | 19% | 35% | +20.5 | -3.5 | -11.6 | -5.5 |
| East 4 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 66% | 1% | 8% | 25% | +18.7 | -2.8 | -2.2 | -13.6 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 88% | 1% | 4% | 8% | -1.8 | +1.0 | -4.3 | +5.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 88% | 1% | 3% | 8% | -1.8 | +4.6 | -1.6 | -1.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Jun Murakami ron 2,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 87% | 1% | 3% | 9% | +2.5 | -5.8 | +7.3 | -4.0 |
| South 3 | Jun Murakami ron 2,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 92% | 0% | 3% | 5% | -0.2 | -4.0 | +6.8 | -2.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 1,300 from Takaharu Ooi | 91% | 0% | 4% | 5% | +3.7 | -0.4 | +0.2 | -3.6 |
| South 4 | Jun Murakami ron 2,600 from Takaharu Ooi | 96% | 0% | 0% | 4% | +1.6 | +0.2 | +13.0 | -14.8 |