Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
11/16 Game 2
Makoto Sawazaki finished 1st (+54.3pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Makoto Sawazaki ron 3,900 from Koshin Asakura, which moved Makoto Sawazaki's expected points by +23.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Koshin Asakura 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Koshin Asakura Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Koshin Asakura ron 7,700 from Sayaka Kayamori | 25% | 26% | 25% | 25% | +20.1 | 0.0 | +1.3 | -21.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Rumi Nikaido ron 3,900 from Sayaka Kayamori | 39% | 23% | 25% | 13% | 0.0 | -1.9 | +9.4 | -7.6 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 38% | 22% | 30% | 10% | -2.7 | +6.5 | -1.9 | -1.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Koshin Asakura ron 8,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 35% | 28% | 28% | 9% | +25.3 | -2.5 | -23.3 | +0.6 |
| East 3 | Rumi Nikaido ron 12,000 from Koshin Asakura | 61% | 19% | 12% | 8% | -34.5 | +0.8 | +35.7 | -2.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Koshin Asakura ron 3,900 from Sayaka Kayamori | 27% | 24% | 39% | 10% | +14.6 | -0.1 | -2.8 | -11.8 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 39% | 22% | 34% | 5% | +2.5 | +2.2 | -32.4 | +27.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 8,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 44% | 27% | 14% | 15% | -1.0 | +23.5 | -20.2 | -2.3 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 39% | 45% | 5% | 11% | -16.9 | -4.1 | -5.7 | +26.8 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 44% | 5% | 27% | +1.2 | +3.6 | -5.5 | +0.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 45% | 3% | 27% | -6.2 | +8.7 | -1.4 | -1.1 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 56% | 3% | 24% | -9.7 | -15.4 | +33.2 | -8.1 |
| South 3 | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 1,500 | 16% | 45% | 16% | 24% | -6.6 | -1.7 | +12.2 | -3.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Makoto Sawazaki ron 3,900 from Koshin Asakura | 14% | 42% | 21% | 23% | -21.0 | +23.9 | -1.3 | -1.6 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 78% | 7% | 14% | -6.4 | +10.5 | +8.5 | -12.6 |