Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
11/18 Game 1
Takaya Matsugase finished 1st (+80.1pt). The game was decided in South 1: Takaya Matsugase tsumo 18,000, which moved Takaya Matsugase's expected points by +50.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,600 from Sayaka Kayamori | 24% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -1.3 | -5.9 | -1.8 | +9.0 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 21% | 24% | 31% | -5.1 | -12.8 | +25.5 | -7.6 |
| East 3 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 13% | 43% | 24% | -8.1 | -8.2 | +25.7 | -9.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 11% | 8% | 68% | 14% | -2.2 | +34.4 | -31.2 | -1.1 |
| East 4 | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,600 from Masato Hagiwara | 14% | 29% | 38% | 19% | +16.3 | -3.4 | -7.9 | -5.0 |
| South 1 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 18,000 | 25% | 27% | 32% | 16% | +50.7 | -16.0 | -19.2 | -15.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 3,900 | 73% | 11% | 11% | 5% | +11.7 | -5.2 | -4.8 | -1.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 7,700 from Sayaka Kayamori | 85% | 6% | 6% | 3% | +12.1 | -18.2 | +2.1 | +4.0 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 93% | 1% | 4% | 2% | +2.9 | +4.1 | -4.2 | -2.8 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 96% | 1% | 2% | 1% | -2.6 | +1.5 | +5.6 | -4.5 |
| South 2, 5 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 3,900 from Hisato Sasaki | 95% | 1% | 3% | 1% | -0.3 | +19.2 | -4.7 | -14.2 |
| South 2, 6 honba | Exhaustive draw | 94% | 3% | 2% | 1% | -3.6 | +2.6 | +2.6 | -1.6 |
| South 2, 7 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 3,900 from Sayaka Kayamori | 92% | 5% | 3% | 1% | +9.8 | -14.7 | +4.1 | +0.8 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 98% | 0% | 2% | 0% | -1.0 | -2.6 | +5.1 | -1.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,600 from Masato Hagiwara | 97% | 0% | 2% | 0% | +0.3 | +1.2 | -7.9 | +6.3 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 3,900 from Masato Hagiwara | 99% | 0% | 0% | 1% | +0.5 | +22.7 | -14.8 | -8.4 |