Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
11/18 Game 1
Matsugase Takaya finished 1st (+80.1pt). The game was decided in South 1: Matsugase Takaya tsumo 18,000, which moved Matsugase Takaya's expected points by +52.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sasaki Hisato ron 2,600 from Kayamori Sayaka | 27% | 24% | 25% | 24% | -2.2 | -6.7 | -1.3 | +10.2 |
| East 2 | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 20% | 25% | 31% | -6.7 | -12.1 | +24.3 | -5.5 |
| East 3 | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 13% | 41% | 27% | -10.6 | -8.3 | +29.1 | -10.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 12,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 9% | 6% | 70% | 15% | +0.3 | +34.8 | -33.5 | -1.6 |
| East 4 | Matsugase Takaya ron 2,600 from Hagiwara Masato | 14% | 28% | 38% | 20% | +15.4 | -1.5 | -9.1 | -4.9 |
| South 1 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 18,000 | 23% | 29% | 31% | 17% | +52.4 | -18.0 | -18.1 | -16.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 3,900 | 75% | 9% | 11% | 5% | +11.3 | -4.3 | -4.9 | -2.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 7,700 from Kayamori Sayaka | 85% | 6% | 6% | 3% | +12.6 | -18.8 | +2.2 | +4.0 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Draw | 94% | 1% | 4% | 2% | +1.7 | +5.6 | -3.8 | -3.5 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Draw | 94% | 2% | 2% | 1% | -1.9 | -1.0 | +5.3 | -2.4 |
| South 2, 5 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 3,900 from Sasaki Hisato | 95% | 1% | 2% | 2% | -1.2 | +20.1 | -4.0 | -15.0 |
| South 2, 6 honba | Draw | 94% | 3% | 3% | 1% | -3.3 | +2.6 | +1.9 | -1.2 |
| South 2, 7 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 3,900 from Kayamori Sayaka | 92% | 4% | 3% | 1% | +9.4 | -13.6 | +4.6 | -0.4 |
| South 3 | Draw | 98% | 0% | 1% | 0% | -1.0 | -3.4 | +5.1 | -0.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 2,600 from Hagiwara Masato | 97% | 0% | 2% | 1% | +1.3 | +0.5 | -8.2 | +6.4 |
| South 4 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 3,900 from Hagiwara Masato | 99% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0.0 | +23.5 | -15.1 | -8.4 |