Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
11/18 Game 2
Arisa Date finished 1st (+125.5pt). The game was decided in South 3: Arisa Date tsumo 12,000, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +35.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yuumi Uotani 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Yuumi Uotani Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Yuumi Uotani ron 9,600 from Kenji Katsumata | 24% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +24.9 | -25.4 | +1.8 | -1.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 1,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 41% | 12% | 23% | 24% | -0.3 | -2.9 | -0.9 | +4.1 |
| East 2 | Arisa Date ron 3,900 from Kenji Katsumata | 41% | 11% | 23% | 26% | +2.7 | -13.1 | +10.6 | -0.1 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 43% | 5% | 27% | 25% | +1.7 | -0.5 | +3.4 | -4.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 44% | 5% | 30% | 21% | -2.2 | +0.5 | +3.0 | -1.3 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 42% | 5% | 33% | 20% | -14.7 | -6.5 | +34.0 | -12.8 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 7,800 | 21% | 2% | 66% | 10% | -7.7 | -3.5 | +15.7 | -4.4 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Arisa Date | 11% | 2% | 82% | 6% | -2.1 | -3.0 | -15.6 | +20.7 |
| East 4 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 14% | 1% | 69% | 16% | -9.9 | -5.2 | -15.8 | +30.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Yuumi Uotani ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 11% | 2% | 45% | 42% | +14.9 | -10.9 | +0.6 | -4.6 |
| South 1 | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 17% | 0% | 45% | 37% | -6.4 | -8.3 | -7.0 | +21.7 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 6,000 | 8% | 0% | 30% | 61% | -2.4 | +7.1 | -3.1 | -1.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 0% | 29% | 62% | -3.2 | +1.7 | +6.7 | -5.1 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 1,300 from Kenji Katsumata | 7% | 1% | 38% | 55% | -3.9 | -4.3 | -4.5 | +12.7 |
| South 3 | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 0% | 25% | 73% | -6.8 | -3.7 | +35.2 | -24.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 3,900 from Yuumi Uotani | 0% | 0% | 76% | 23% | -4.7 | +0.1 | +8.4 | -3.8 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 9,600 from Saki Kurosawa | 0% | 0% | 86% | 14% | +2.2 | -0.1 | +14.3 | -16.4 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 0% | 98% | 2% | -2.9 | -2.3 | +7.5 | -2.3 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -7.3 | -7.1 | +21.5 | -7.0 |
| South 3, 5 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -5.0 | -5.7 | +14.4 | -3.7 |
| South 3, 6 honba | Yuumi Uotani ron 2,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +7.8 | +0.5 | -0.8 | -7.5 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -7.4 | +12.4 | -2.3 | -2.8 |