Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
11/18 Game 2
Date Arisa finished 1st (+125.5pt). The game was decided in South 3: Date Arisa tsumo 12,000, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +35.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Uotani Yuumi 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Uotani Yuumi Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Uotani Yuumi ron 9,600 from Katsumata Kenji | 26% | 25% | 25% | 23% | +23.7 | -24.6 | -0.3 | +1.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kurosawa Saki ron 1,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 43% | 11% | 24% | 22% | -1.9 | -3.2 | -0.3 | +5.5 |
| East 2 | Date Arisa ron 3,900 from Katsumata Kenji | 41% | 10% | 23% | 26% | +1.8 | -13.0 | +10.8 | +0.5 |
| East 3 | Draw | 41% | 5% | 29% | 25% | +2.6 | -0.9 | +2.6 | -4.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 45% | 4% | 30% | 21% | -2.2 | +2.9 | +3.0 | -3.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 42% | 5% | 33% | 20% | -15.1 | -8.4 | +34.6 | -11.1 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 7,800 | 20% | 2% | 67% | 11% | -7.0 | -4.1 | +16.0 | -4.9 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Kurosawa Saki ron 8,000 from Date Arisa | 11% | 1% | 82% | 7% | -1.7 | -1.9 | -18.0 | +21.6 |
| East 4 | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 12,000 | 15% | 2% | 65% | 18% | -11.0 | -6.3 | -12.2 | +29.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Uotani Yuumi ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 10% | 1% | 46% | 42% | +15.9 | -9.9 | -0.9 | -5.1 |
| South 1 | Kurosawa Saki ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 19% | 0% | 46% | 35% | -7.5 | -9.0 | -6.0 | +22.5 |
| South 2 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 6,000 | 7% | 0% | 31% | 62% | -2.2 | +6.8 | -3.3 | -1.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 7% | 0% | 31% | 62% | -3.3 | +2.4 | +4.5 | -3.6 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Kurosawa Saki ron 1,300 from Katsumata Kenji | 7% | 0% | 36% | 57% | -3.7 | -3.5 | -2.8 | +10.0 |
| South 3 | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 0% | 25% | 72% | -6.6 | -3.9 | +35.5 | -25.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 3,900 from Uotani Yuumi | 1% | 0% | 78% | 21% | -4.9 | 0.0 | +6.7 | -1.9 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Date Arisa ron 9,600 from Kurosawa Saki | 0% | 0% | 84% | 15% | +2.1 | +0.1 | +15.4 | -17.6 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 0% | 97% | 3% | -2.5 | -2.5 | +7.4 | -2.4 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -7.8 | -7.5 | +21.9 | -6.6 |
| South 3, 5 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -4.5 | -5.2 | +14.3 | -4.5 |
| South 3, 6 honba | Uotani Yuumi ron 2,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +7.3 | +0.3 | -1.1 | -6.5 |
| South 4 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -7.0 | +12.5 | -2.3 | -3.2 |