Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
11/22 Game 2
Shingo Hori finished 1st (+81.8pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Shingo Hori ron 5,200 from Naoki Setokuma, which moved Shingo Hori's expected points by +25.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -12.3 | +21.9 | -5.1 | -4.4 |
| East 2 | Shingo Hori tsumo 2,700 | 17% | 42% | 21% | 20% | +7.7 | -4.1 | -0.2 | -3.4 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 38% | 23% | 18% | +2.4 | -2.4 | +0.7 | -0.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Shingo Hori ron 5,200 from Naoki Setokuma | 23% | 36% | 22% | 19% | +25.3 | -2.9 | -21.5 | -0.8 |
| East 4 | Rio Tojyo ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 43% | 31% | 9% | 17% | -1.2 | +17.2 | -12.4 | -3.6 |
| South 1 | Shingo Hori ron 3,900 from Rio Tojyo | 38% | 46% | 5% | 11% | +11.2 | -13.1 | +0.8 | +1.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 6,000 | 53% | 31% | 4% | 12% | +14.9 | -7.1 | -4.0 | -3.8 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 12,000 | 69% | 20% | 3% | 8% | +24.8 | -10.3 | -3.5 | -11.0 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 3,900 from Rio Tojyo | 92% | 6% | 1% | 1% | -0.5 | -10.7 | -2.7 | +13.9 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 94% | 3% | 1% | 3% | +2.0 | -0.1 | -1.1 | -0.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,500 from Shingo Hori | 97% | 0% | 0% | 2% | -2.3 | -1.5 | +3.1 | +0.6 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 4,000 | 97% | 1% | 0% | 2% | -0.2 | +13.7 | -9.5 | -4.0 |
| South 4 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000 | 98% | 0% | 0% | 2% | -5.3 | -18.4 | -4.5 | +28.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 12,000 | 94% | 0% | 0% | 6% | +14.5 | -4.4 | -2.6 | -7.5 |