Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
11/25 Game 1
Arisa Date finished 1st (+59.6pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Arisa Date tsumo 12,000, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +58.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Arisa Date | 24% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -4.1 | -22.1 | +24.6 | +1.7 |
| East 2 | Akina Mizuhara ron 3,900 from Arisa Date | 20% | 12% | 44% | 24% | +0.5 | -13.6 | +12.8 | +0.3 |
| East 3 | Ken Sonoda ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 17% | 6% | 55% | 22% | +22.5 | +1.7 | -2.2 | -22.0 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 32% | 6% | 52% | 11% | -4.4 | +2.6 | -2.7 | +4.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 30% | 7% | 50% | 13% | -0.8 | -3.4 | +10.2 | -6.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 3,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 26% | 5% | 62% | 8% | +17.1 | -0.2 | -5.3 | -11.7 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 41% | 4% | 51% | 4% | -25.1 | +19.2 | +8.3 | -2.4 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date tsumo 3,000 | 18% | 10% | 69% | 4% | -7.1 | +12.5 | -2.6 | -2.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 16% | 66% | 5% | +7.8 | -9.6 | +1.0 | +0.8 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 8% | 69% | 4% | -16.3 | +58.8 | -33.7 | -8.8 |
| South 4 | Arisa Date tsumo 2,000 | 6% | 78% | 13% | 2% | -5.8 | +12.9 | -0.2 | -6.8 |