Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
11/26 Game 1
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+56.0pt). The game was decided in South 4: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 18,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +59.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Seiichi Kondo 1st-place chance | Makoto Sawazaki 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Seiichi Kondo Expected pt change | Makoto Sawazaki Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -18.6 | -6.2 | +31.0 | -6.2 |
| East 2 | Makoto Sawazaki tsumo 3,000 | 13% | 19% | 49% | 19% | -1.6 | +6.4 | -0.8 | -4.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 22% | 49% | 17% | +2.9 | +2.3 | -8.6 | +3.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 8,000 | 14% | 26% | 40% | 20% | +31.3 | -17.5 | -5.5 | -8.3 |
| East 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000 | 35% | 14% | 36% | 16% | -14.6 | -7.9 | +31.7 | -9.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 8% | 66% | 9% | +2.8 | -4.4 | -0.9 | +2.5 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Seiichi Kondo ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 19% | 7% | 64% | 10% | +24.8 | +1.1 | -4.9 | -20.9 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 36% | 6% | 55% | 3% | -2.5 | -1.2 | -0.2 | +3.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 35% | 4% | 56% | 4% | -7.9 | -10.5 | -10.3 | +28.8 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 1,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 33% | 4% | 47% | 16% | -1.0 | +0.1 | +6.2 | -5.3 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 29% | 4% | 55% | 12% | -2.1 | -5.9 | +1.4 | +6.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 8,000 from Seiichi Kondo | 26% | 3% | 58% | 13% | -23.1 | -3.0 | +23.5 | +2.6 |
| South 3 | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 0% | 91% | 7% | +19.5 | -5.1 | -6.2 | -8.1 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 18,000 | 7% | 0% | 87% | 5% | -22.3 | -6.8 | -30.3 | +59.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,500 from Seiichi Kondo | 3% | 0% | 29% | 68% | -3.9 | +0.2 | -4.1 | +7.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Seiichi Kondo tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 0% | 18% | 81% | +7.2 | -2.0 | -7.7 | +2.5 |