Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
11/26 Game 2
Kayamori Sayaka finished 1st (+82.1pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 18,000, which moved Kayamori Sayaka's expected points by +51.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 5,800 from Kayamori Sayaka | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +15.4 | +0.4 | +0.2 | -16.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 37% | 24% | 24% | 16% | -18.0 | -8.8 | +33.7 | -6.9 |
| East 2 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 2,000 | 21% | 18% | 51% | 11% | +6.6 | -5.4 | -1.6 | +0.4 |
| East 3 | Draw | 24% | 13% | 50% | 13% | -3.0 | +2.9 | +2.8 | -2.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000 | 22% | 15% | 52% | 11% | -4.3 | +27.5 | -14.0 | -9.2 |
| East 4 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 4,000 | 21% | 33% | 39% | 7% | -4.0 | +13.5 | -1.5 | -8.0 |
| South 1 | Draw | 16% | 46% | 34% | 4% | -7.5 | +6.0 | -1.5 | +2.9 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 2,000 from Okada Sayaka | 8% | 55% | 32% | 5% | +0.2 | +10.9 | -10.1 | -1.0 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 3,900 | 7% | 70% | 20% | 3% | -4.0 | +8.5 | -3.6 | -0.9 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 79% | 14% | 3% | -5.7 | +20.4 | -9.2 | -5.5 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 2,700 | 0% | 96% | 3% | 1% | -5.4 | -3.4 | +11.7 | -3.0 |
| South 3 | Draw | 0% | 94% | 5% | 1% | -1.2 | +1.7 | -2.7 | +2.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | -22.3 | -7.9 | -20.9 | +51.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 12,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 0% | 95% | 0% | 5% | -13.6 | -3.7 | -2.2 | +19.5 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 12,000 from Okada Sayaka | 0% | 86% | 0% | 14% | +0.9 | -24.0 | -16.0 | +39.1 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 12,000 from Nikaido Aki | 0% | 25% | 0% | 75% | 0.0 | -24.7 | +0.6 | +24.0 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 2,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -1.2 | +0.5 | +5.0 | -4.3 |