Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
11/26 Game 2
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+82.1pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 18,000, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +51.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 5,800 from Sayaka Kayamori | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +14.6 | +0.8 | +0.1 | -15.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 35% | 25% | 24% | 15% | -17.7 | -8.0 | +32.5 | -6.8 |
| East 2 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 2,000 | 19% | 18% | 50% | 13% | +9.9 | -9.4 | +0.4 | -0.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 13% | 50% | 12% | -4.2 | +3.4 | +2.4 | -1.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 14% | 52% | 11% | -7.1 | +30.9 | -13.9 | -10.0 |
| East 4 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 4,000 | 18% | 35% | 38% | 9% | -3.4 | +13.0 | -1.4 | -8.2 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 48% | 33% | 4% | -7.6 | +5.7 | -2.0 | +4.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 2,000 from Sayaka Okada | 7% | 56% | 31% | 5% | +0.5 | +8.3 | -7.9 | -0.9 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 3,900 | 7% | 68% | 21% | 4% | -3.1 | +11.4 | -5.2 | -3.1 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 81% | 13% | 3% | -5.3 | +19.8 | -10.0 | -4.6 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 2,700 | 0% | 97% | 3% | 1% | -4.6 | -3.6 | +11.7 | -3.5 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 95% | 4% | 0% | -2.2 | +1.4 | -2.0 | +2.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | -21.5 | -8.0 | -21.8 | +51.3 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 0% | 95% | 0% | 5% | -14.2 | -4.2 | -1.8 | +20.2 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Sayaka Okada | 0% | 85% | 0% | 15% | +1.4 | -23.9 | -15.8 | +38.3 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Aki Nikaido | 0% | 25% | 0% | 75% | -0.2 | -23.8 | 0.0 | +24.0 |
| South 4, 5 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 2,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -1.3 | +0.1 | +5.6 | -4.4 |