Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
12/2 Game 1
Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+80.2pt). The game was decided in South 2: Sasaki Hisato tsumo 24,000, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +53.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sasaki Hisato ron 2,600 from Nikaido Aki | 25% | 27% | 23% | 26% | -4.0 | -1.4 | -5.3 | +10.8 |
| East 2 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 3,000 | 21% | 25% | 21% | 32% | -0.5 | +5.8 | 0.0 | -5.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 22% | 30% | 20% | 28% | -0.3 | -3.5 | +3.6 | +0.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Draw | 22% | 26% | 23% | 29% | -5.8 | -3.1 | +6.5 | +2.4 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 24% | 26% | 31% | -13.8 | -13.3 | +38.3 | -11.3 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,000 | 9% | 14% | 60% | 17% | -7.0 | -10.5 | +27.4 | -9.9 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,600 from Sasaki Hisato | 3% | 4% | 85% | 8% | -2.2 | +15.9 | -0.8 | -12.9 |
| East 4 | Nikaido Aki ron 3,900 from Kayamori Sayaka | 3% | 7% | 86% | 4% | +1.0 | -8.0 | +7.7 | -0.7 |
| South 1 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 3,900 | 2% | 3% | 94% | 2% | +7.3 | -5.0 | -1.3 | -1.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 3% | 93% | 2% | -13.0 | -4.6 | -0.8 | +18.5 |
| South 2 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 24,000 | 0% | 1% | 95% | 3% | -6.3 | -26.3 | -20.7 | +53.3 |
| South 3 | Mizuhara Akina ron 3,900 from Nikaido Aki | 0% | 0% | 58% | 42% | +9.6 | -4.4 | -17.0 | +11.7 |
| South 4 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 0% | 30% | 70% | -6.1 | -5.9 | -18.1 | +30.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -19.2 | +25.8 | -1.4 | -5.2 |