Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
12/2 Game 2
Koshin Asakura finished 1st (+122.4pt). The game was decided in East 4, 2 honba: Koshin Asakura ron 18,000 from Mari Takamiya, which moved Koshin Asakura's expected points by +40.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Koshin Asakura 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Koshin Asakura Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Rio Tojyo ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 24% | 26% | 26% | 24% | -2.6 | -20.6 | +21.4 | +1.7 |
| East 2 | Koshin Asakura ron 1,000 from Rio Tojyo | 22% | 14% | 41% | 24% | +0.9 | -3.7 | -0.5 | +3.3 |
| East 3 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 6,400 | 22% | 10% | 41% | 26% | -2.6 | +17.7 | -11.7 | -3.4 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 20% | 31% | 26% | -1.9 | -1.8 | -1.6 | +5.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Koshin Asakura tsumo 6,000 | 20% | 19% | 31% | 29% | -6.2 | -4.4 | -10.4 | +21.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Koshin Asakura ron 18,000 from Mari Takamiya | 16% | 16% | 20% | 48% | -1.0 | -39.9 | +0.6 | +40.3 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Koshin Asakura tsumo 7,800 | 5% | 1% | 9% | 85% | -3.9 | -4.5 | -4.5 | +13.0 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 0% | 4% | 94% | +4.2 | -1.7 | -4.4 | +1.9 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 0% | 2% | 95% | -8.7 | -5.5 | +21.3 | -7.0 |
| South 1 | Koshin Asakura ron 8,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 2% | 0% | 8% | 90% | -13.3 | +2.1 | +0.1 | +11.1 |
| South 2 | Rio Tojyo ron 2,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 0% | 0% | 3% | 97% | -1.3 | -3.4 | +4.3 | +0.4 |
| South 3 | Koshin Asakura tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 97% | +0.2 | -1.5 | -4.1 | +5.4 |
| South 4 | Koshin Asakura tsumo 24,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -7.8 | -8.2 | -7.9 | +23.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Koshin Asakura tsumo 9,600 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -3.3 | -3.4 | -3.5 | +10.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Rumi Nikaido tsumo 2,700 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +5.4 | -1.4 | -0.1 | -3.9 |