Game · 2021-22 Regular Season
12/3 Game 1
Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+53.4pt). The game was decided in South 4: Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +75.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Kanako Maruyama 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Kanako Maruyama Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kanako Maruyama tsumo 4,000 | 25% | 24% | 26% | 25% | -6.1 | +11.1 | -3.6 | -1.5 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara ron 1,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 20% | 32% | 23% | 24% | +0.2 | 0.0 | -2.2 | +2.1 |
| East 3 | Masato Hagiwara ron 16,000 from Kanako Maruyama | 20% | 32% | 21% | 26% | +0.2 | -42.2 | -3.4 | +45.3 |
| East 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 4,000 | 14% | 6% | 14% | 67% | -3.5 | -3.7 | +12.9 | -5.7 |
| South 1 | Kanako Maruyama tsumo 12,000 | 14% | 5% | 20% | 61% | -22.1 | +31.5 | -8.7 | -0.7 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 16% | 15% | 64% | -2.2 | +3.9 | -1.9 | +0.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 8,000 | 4% | 19% | 15% | 62% | +36.5 | -19.7 | -11.8 | -5.0 |
| South 3 | Masato Hagiwara ron 3,900 from Kanako Maruyama | 20% | 7% | 12% | 60% | +0.6 | -15.5 | -3.6 | +18.4 |
| South 4 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000 | 9% | 1% | 2% | 88% | -20.9 | -11.8 | +75.1 | -42.4 |